LogFAQs > #895270962

It's very hard to ignore that Clinton gained huge ground in Texas in 2016 compared to Obama by around 500k votes. With Trump's approval rating in the toilet here it's not unbelievable to suggest that, if Trump became unpopular enough, he'd lose the state.

FL81 posted...

I really think the Democrats are overstating the importance of their Alabama win. It really only happened because the GOP ran an unelectable candidate with multiple campaign-crushing scandals (admittedly if the Republicans keep doing this, the Dems might stand a chance)

The problem with this is that Jones won in a +30 area and polling prior to the scandal had Moore at around +10-ish. From what I gather, it was:

-Moore being unlikable in general
-Republicans performing poorly consistently since the 2016 election in special elections, even cases where they won (e.g. strong Trump districts going red narrowly)
-The scandals finally hitting him

Texas's demographic shifts are going to trend Texas to where it's on the map in the future in a way Alabama couldn't consistently be. There's electoral data to back that trend, the question really is "when?".

For consideration: Texas is as Red now as Michigan was Blue in 2012.
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