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TopicLeonhart Analyzes the Bracket!
LeonhartFour
10/02/18 10:27:38 PM
#17:


Division 1

(1) Dante
(16) Cuphead

If there's one thing Dante is good at, it's obliterating weak characters. He might struggle to win debated matches, but he rarely looks bad in matches like this.

Winner: Dante
Odds: 100%

(8) Chloe Price
(9) Lightning

Also known as the Robazoid Special, and you know that's bad news. Lightning put up perhaps the most embarrassing performance in CBIX, getting Ulti-style demolished by DK despite Falco being in the match. It's hard to tell how strong Lightning is (or isn't). Her first match against Sonic was before the game came out and people realized they didn't like it. The second one was full of LFF, so she's probably even worse against DK directly than she appeared. That being said, barring some sort of Tumblr rally, not even Lightning can blow this. She might be fodder, but she's still high end fodder. Chloe is probably just middle of the road fodder, but Life is Strange seems to be getting more popular each passing year. I won't give her no chance to win, but the odds are pretty low.

Winner: Lightning
Odds: 90%

(5) Spyro the Dragon
(12) Chun-Li

Spyro got to finally enjoy some contest success in CBIX, dominating a horribly weak fourpack before bowing out to Sephiroth and Morrigan. I'd take Chun-Li over Morrigan without thinking twice, and I don't see much reason for Spyro to have boosted a bunch to catch up to her, so yeah.

Winner: Chun-Li
Odds: 75%

(4) Ganondorf
(13) Neku Sakuraba

Ugh, seeing Ganondorf beat a good character always hurts me a little inside. Neku will be "riding high" off of the Switch port of The World Ends With You coming out around the time of this match, but this is still the dude who lost to Laharl and Catherine.

Winner: Ganondorf
Odds: 100%

(3) Vivi
(14) Yu Narukami

Tough break for Narukami. I think he could win a match with the right draw, but this isn't it. Even if Vivi can't maintain the strength he showed in CBIX, he's in no danger in losing to someone who lost to Shadow the Hedgehog.

Winner: Vivi
Odds: 100%

(6) Victor Sullivan
(11) Aya Brea

Okay, here's the first real tossup of the contest. I was legitimately stunned to see either of these characters get a winnable match because I think they're both fodder. Nathan Drake is barely above the fodder line, and I think anyone else from Uncharted will be much, much weaker. Aya looked bad the last time we saw her, finishing dead last against Sora and Scorpion. I'm picking her here out of fanboyism, hoping for a repeat of 2002, but really, who knows.

In fodder/fodder matches, I think the higher seed has an advantage because they're more likely to get the brackets and thus the bracket votes in a match few people will care about. This could actually make a bigger difference here than usual because only registered voters will have brackets, and thus all their votes will count double. Aya could win with the unregistered voters and still lose overall (I kinda hope Allen gives us some stats if that happens at any point).

Winner: Aya Brea
Odds: 45%

(7) Tidus
(10) Donkey Kong

Oh hey, first relevant poll of the contest!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3260-division-5-round-1-donkey-tails-tidus-cube

Tidus throttled DK here, but this was 10 years ago and a 4-way, so a lot could've changed. DK beat up on Lightning, but Tidus is undoubtedly stronger than her regardless of his reputation for choking. He did very nearly beat Missingno in CBIX regardless of the 2:1 cheating ratio (LOL), and I'd never pick DK to do that. But these guys are both weird and lose matches they should win, so I can't put supreme confidence in Tidus. I'm picking him regardless because he's my second favorite character, but he can definitely lose.

Winner: Tidus
Odds: 60%
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