LogFAQs > #911043489

That's an interesting prediction.

It's true that, because of how much more later matches are worth, that there's likely extremely little correlation between who has picked matches well so far and who will finish in the top 50. If we assume that the current top 50 and the final top 50 are independently and randomly determined, then... well, there's a 99.3% chance any given bracket ends up in the top 50, and the odds of any of the current top 50 being one of those brackets is thus about 1-(0.993)^50 ~= 30%, which would suggest your prediction is the more likely outcome.

That said, there is SOME correlation between having a good bracket now and a good bracket later (in particular, deliberately bad brackets will be absent from both), so the 30% might be a slight underestimate. Probably not much of one, though. So in conclusion I think you're more likely than not to be right, but it's definitely a toss-up.
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