LogFAQs > #911366754

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 202: More Like Cesar Say-owned
Corrik 10/29/18 1:45:02 AM #198:	Crossfiyah posted... Corrik posted... xp1337 posted... My district is rated Likely R and I don't expect it to flip, but the chances aren't zero. If it does flip we're probably looking at like 60+ in the House though so that'd be something. >_> Republicans have been flooding the air with negative ads the past few days so I mean, I guess they at least feel concerned enough to run them. I think you guys really struggle to grasp that just because a district might go a certain way doesn't mean it affects other areas. If your place went D, it would not mean anything for the house besides that it got one seat it wasn't likely to get. There is a general shift across the entire country though, many races are correlated with each other, although not to the extent whole states tend to be in presidential elections. If Democrats are up +9 on a generic ballot they will have sweeping returns everywhere, even in races that would normally lean R or be competitive in likely R districts. There is not a general shift. They average out one to try and make predictions in races in which polling little exists. In fact, there have been times the generic ballot said one thing and the other party won seats. Local races will decide seats. As of now 205 are polling safely for Dems supposedly. 199 for Repubs. With like 31 up for grabs or neutral. The major issue Repubs have which could cost them seats is incumbents which left their seats. In some cases they were in heavy R districts but in some it could cost them a seat and even 1 seat could tip the balance. --- LoL ID = imajericho XBL GT = Corrik <cite>Corrik posted [p:911366754] in Politics C... [t:77134621]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote><cite>xp1337 posted...</cite> <quote>My district is rated Likely R and I don't expect it to flip, but the chances aren't zero. If it does flip we're probably looking at like 60+ in the House though so that'd be something. >_> Republicans have been flooding the air with negative ads the past few days so I mean, I guess they at least feel concerned enough to run them.</quote> I think you guys really struggle to grasp that just because a district might go a certain way doesn't mean it affects other areas. If your place went D, it would not mean anything for the house besides that it got one seat it wasn't likely to get.</quote> There is a general shift across the entire country though, many races are correlated with each other, although not to the extent whole states tend to be in presidential elections. If Democrats are up +9 on a generic ballot they will have sweeping returns everywhere, even in races that would normally lean R or be competitive in likely R districts.</quote> There is not a general shift. They average out one to try and make predictions in races in which polling little exists. In fact, there have been times the generic ballot said one thing and the other party won seats. Local races will decide seats. As of now 205 are polling safely for Dems supposedly. 199 for Repubs. With like 31 up for grabs or neutral. The major issue Repubs have which could cost them seats is incumbents which left their seats. In some cases they were in heavy R districts but in some it could cost them a seat and even 1 seat could tip the balance. --- LoL ID = imajericho XBL GT = Corrik</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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