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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders
Suprak the Stud 11/01/18 2:12:18 PM #5:	Corrik posted... These Senate Polls are so all over the place it is crazy. McSally +7 McSally Even Sinema +4 Sinema +6 Sinema +3 McSally +2 Donelly +7 Donelly +2 Braun +3 Braun +4 Heller +7 Rosen +3 I have absolutely no idea what to think of Arizona. That races polling has been insane, like you've pointed out. It goes from McSally +7 to Sinema +6 with just as many polls one way as the other. I have no real prediction there, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way. I would think, just by the fundamentals of that state, that McSally should have an advantage. She might actually be the best candidate of all the candidates in competitive states for Republicans and AZ is a red state (leaning purple, but hasn't gone blue yet). So it is weird that Sinema has been as competitive as she is. The Rosen +3 might just be an outlier. It is CNN and 538 gives them a somewhat significant democratic lean to their polling too. Most everything is showing Heller with a lead there, and 538 has him 5/9 times winning that seat. Pretty sure it is a republican win, which, again is weird since he is in a blue state. I would expect Rosen to be doing much better than Sinema but the polls don't reflect that. Indiana has been polling close but slightly breaking for Donnelly. That +7 poll I want to think of as an outlier, but it is from Fox News who has had fairly good polling the past couple cycles and who tends to have a republican lean, if anything. Of those three seats you listed, I think this is the most likely to go democrat but I don't even know if that'll happen! In contrast to all that, look at Florida. It is almost bizarre how stable that race is polling. All of these following polls are from different groups! Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +4 Nelson +1 Tie Nelson +4 Nelson +1 A senate race that is CRIMINALLY under polled is Montana. All those Florida polls are from like the last ten days. Montana, in contrast, has two polls in all of October. Tester was up in both, but I'd still like to see more polling there. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911600058] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote>These Senate Polls are so all over the place it is crazy. McSally +7 McSally Even Sinema +4 Sinema +6 Sinema +3 McSally +2 Donelly +7 Donelly +2 Braun +3 Braun +4 Heller +7 Rosen +3</quote> I have absolutely no idea what to think of Arizona. That races polling has been insane, like you've pointed out. It goes from McSally +7 to Sinema +6 with just as many polls one way as the other. I have no real prediction there, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way. I would think, just by the fundamentals of that state, that McSally should have an advantage. She might actually be the best candidate of all the candidates in competitive states for Republicans and AZ is a red state (leaning purple, but hasn't gone blue yet). So it is weird that Sinema has been as competitive as she is. The Rosen +3 might just be an outlier. It is CNN and 538 gives them a somewhat significant democratic lean to their polling too. Most everything is showing Heller with a lead there, and 538 has him 5/9 times winning that seat. Pretty sure it is a republican win, which, again is weird since he is in a blue state. I would expect Rosen to be doing much better than Sinema but the polls don't reflect that. Indiana has been polling close but slightly breaking for Donnelly. That +7 poll I want to think of as an outlier, but it is from Fox News who has had fairly good polling the past couple cycles and who tends to have a republican lean, if anything. Of those three seats you listed, I think this is the most likely to go democrat but I don't even know if that'll happen! In contrast to all that, look at Florida. It is almost bizarre how stable that race is polling. All of these following polls are from different groups! Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +2 Nelson +4 Nelson +1 Tie Nelson +4 Nelson +1 A senate race that is CRIMINALLY under polled is Montana. All those Florida polls are from like the last ten days. Montana, in contrast, has two polls in all of October. Tester was up in both, but I'd still like to see more polling there. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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