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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders
Suprak the Stud 11/01/18 2:28:36 PM #9:	xp1337 posted... Silver was talking about the Senate polls on Twitter yesterday and how there's a noticable divide between "gold standard" polls (nonpartisan, live-caller) and the online/robo-calls/GOP internals that are making up the rest of the data for the Senate races: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1057740703273500672 This is the thread where he discusses it, but the summary is that in the gold-standard polls, the Democrats look better and the chances to win the Senate are slim but still alive and they're about as likely to win seats as lose them. In the others, the Senate is over and it's down to if the Dems can keep it within -2. Oh, very cool, I haven't actually seen that. They had a good post on the senate today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-senate/ They point out that, well, yeah it isn't "impossible" for the democrats to win it, but they'd need a systematic polling error even worse than 2016 to overcome where they're at. The biggest issue is ND/TX/TN are all pretty much out of reach if polling is inaccurate, so even if Dems pull off a miracle and win every single close race, they're still at 50-50. And they go through the statistics of that happening and it isn't good, anyway. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911601436] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>xp1337 posted...</cite> <quote>Silver was talking about the Senate polls on Twitter yesterday and how there's a noticable divide between "gold standard" polls (nonpartisan, live-caller) and the online/robo-calls/GOP internals that are making up the rest of the data for the Senate races: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1057740703273500672 This is the thread where he discusses it, but the summary is that in the gold-standard polls, the Democrats look better and the chances to win the Senate are slim but still alive and they're about as likely to win seats as lose them. In the others, the Senate is over and it's down to if the Dems can keep it within -2.</quote> Oh, very cool, I haven't actually seen that. They had a good post on the senate today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-senate/ They point out that, well, yeah it isn't "impossible" for the democrats to win it, but they'd need a systematic polling error even worse than 2016 to overcome where they're at. The biggest issue is ND/TX/TN are all pretty much out of reach if polling is inaccurate, so even if Dems pull off a miracle and win every single close race, they're still at 50-50. And they go through the statistics of that happening and it isn't good, anyway. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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