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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders
xp1337 11/01/18 2:45:36 PM #10:	Oh, are we doing PREDIXs already? I was holding off until election day but I've been internally working it out a bit in my head. i even have 3 different models since i know you'll all just laugh at me ~The Land of Optimism~ (This is what I'd go with if you held me to one) House: D+50 (All House numbers are approximate, I didn't analyze district by district to get a specific number. I'm actually tempted to go a little higher on this number but let's just stick at 50 for now.) Senate: D+2 (Okay, I'll admit that +2 is perhaps a small stretch here, because the difference between the path to 50 and the path to 51 is very different. I think the most likely one though is -ND, +AZ, NV, TX. yes. tx. Somehow I have slowly started to think Beto might actually have a chance somehow. Alternate path is ND holds (Heitkamp defies the polls again!) and TX is a loss. +1 with -ND and a TX loss may be most likely though but we're going full hope here.) Governor: D+9 (forgot about this did ya? I haven't spent too much time thinking about this. I'm counting Alaska's current Independent Governor with the Dems so I'm working from a 17D-33R base. +MI, +ME, +IL, +NM, +IA, +FL, +WI, +OH, WILDCARD: +1 of GA or KS or NV) ~~~ The More Grounded Version (Because you guys will point and laugh and pile on me for being too hopeful in the above scenario) House: D+40 (Right about where the 538 Average is.) Senate: No Change (Couple different paths here. Think the most likely would be trading ND and MO for AZ and NV, but you can get here a few ways) Governor: D+8 (Same as above, but take off the WILDCARD) ~~~ Cynicism Mode (Certainly not a worst case scenario model [PANIC!] but going much lower than this would really surprise me.) House: D+30 (Maybe you could talk my cynicism down to +25. Maybe.) Senate: R+2 (As bad as the Senate map is for Democrats, I have a hard time seeing it go much worse than -2. Like, yes, I know what results you could give to get there, but man I just don't see it. I'd say most likely path here is: -ND, MO. Lose NV and one of AZ/IN/FL) Governor: D+6 (It's kinda hard for the night to go much worse than this for Dems without polling errors IMO. +MI, ME, IL, NM, IA, FL. -AK, +1 of WI/OH) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:911602679] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Oh, are we doing PREDIXs already? I was holding off until election day but I've been internally working it out a bit in my head. i even have 3 different models since i know you'll all just laugh at me ~The Land of Optimism~ (This is what I'd go with if you held me to one) House: D+50 (All House numbers are approximate, I didn't analyze district by district to get a specific number. I'm actually tempted to go a little higher on this number but let's just stick at 50 for now.) Senate: D+2 (Okay, I'll admit that +2 is perhaps a small stretch here, because the difference between the path to 50 and the path to 51 is very different. I think the most likely one though is -ND, +AZ, NV, TX. yes. tx. Somehow I have slowly started to think Beto might actually have a chance somehow. Alternate path is ND holds (Heitkamp defies the polls again!) and TX is a loss. +1 with -ND and a TX loss may be most likely though but we're going full hope here.) Governor: D+9 (forgot about this did ya? I haven't spent too much time thinking about this. I'm counting Alaska's current Independent Governor with the Dems so I'm working from a 17D-33R base. +MI, +ME, +IL, +NM, +IA, +FL, +WI, +OH, WILDCARD: +1 of GA or KS or NV) ~~~ The More Grounded Version (Because you guys will point and laugh and pile on me for being too hopeful in the above scenario) House: D+40 (Right about where the 538 Average is.) Senate: No Change (Couple different paths here. Think the most likely would be trading ND and MO for AZ and NV, but you can get here a few ways) Governor: D+8 (Same as above, but take off the WILDCARD) ~~~ Cynicism Mode (Certainly not a worst case scenario model [PANIC!] but going much lower than this would really surprise me.) House: D+30 (Maybe you could talk my cynicism down to +25. Maybe.) Senate: R+2 (As bad as the Senate map is for Democrats, I have a hard time seeing it go much worse than -2. Like, yes, I know what results you could give to get there, but man I just don't see it. I'd say most likely path here is: -ND, MO. Lose NV and one of AZ/IN/FL) Governor: D+6 (It's kinda hard for the night to go much worse than this for Dems without polling errors IMO. +MI, ME, IL, NM, IA, FL. -AK, +1 of WI/OH) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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