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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders
xp1337 11/05/18 1:36:48 PM #259:	Crossfiyah posted... That is not how any of this works. Probability accounts for all of that in a well designed model with good data. The argument you're making is futile. Corrik rejects 538's model, so arguing the probability from 538's standpoint will never go anywhere with him. You don't have to simplify it as "Likely flips x% of the time, Lean y% of the time" because 538's model will do that for you and without those simplifications, using the actual %'s they have calculated. If Corrik was receptive to that argument he'd accept 538's model even if he rejected the underlying seat ratings. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:911856715] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote>That is not how any of this works. Probability accounts for all of that in a well designed model with good data.</quote> The argument you're making is futile. Corrik rejects 538's model, so arguing the probability from 538's standpoint will never go anywhere with him. You don't have to simplify it as "Likely flips x% of the time, Lean y% of the time" because 538's model will do that for you and without those simplifications, using the actual %'s they have calculated. If Corrik was receptive to that argument he'd accept 538's model even if he rejected the underlying seat ratings. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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