LogFAQs > #911912766

Final PREDIX:

House: Dems +22ish.I know 538 has way more, but Im leaning more towards RCP for this. I usually like 538 but this is their first year doing this and I think theyre going to need a try to refine their formula as good as their other projections are. Im not sure how much all the extra stuff is going to play here. I know incumbent party in a midterm and all, but Trump has whipped up his base into a blind rage and panic and theyre going to turn out in a way I think will be unexpected in a midterm like this. I just have this feeling were going to be disappointed and come just sort of getting the house back.

Senate: Republicans +4 (maybe 3). They win all the obvious ones that arent really competitive in ND, TN, TX (although I do think TN will be closer than I thought). I think they hold both of their toss ups in AZ and NV (NV in particular will suck because we should win that easy if NV is staying blue in the future). AZ could go either way with the polling as it is, but I think Sinema falls just short which is a real shame. Then I think they win two democratic toss ups in MO, IN, and FL. I think we hold FL based on polling but the other two are likely losses. Im more certain of MO than IN but I think Indiana winds up being too red. THEN I think something weird will happen in one of MT, WV or maaaaaybe MI. I just dont think theres been nearly enough polling done in WV or MT to make me feel comfortable and the polls that were done showed MT close and WV tightening. And there has been some serious tightening in that MI race for some reason. I think thats still a hold but I am way more concerned today than two weeks ago.

I know that all sounds like worse case scenario and gloom and doom, but the polling hasnt given me a great reason to be optimistic and I never trust our side to show up when it matters.

BUT. I am optimistic about the governors. +10 for dems is my REACH PREDIX but I feel good about it for some reason. IL MI NM and Maine (ME?) are all gimmes. I think they sweep the lean dem toss ups of FL OH IA and WI. Wisconsin and Iowa are actually a bit less certain but polling has looked great in all those states. THEN I think they win two of NV, GA, Alaska (AK?), KS, SD (and maybe NH/OK instead). NV is a very slight dem lead and the others are all republican leans. But every single one of them outside of GA has been trending democrat for some time. And while Trump has been running around stumping for republican senators, the only two governors he has really targeted with the same fervor is Gillum and Abrams. I think this works to the Democrats favor and theyll wind up picking up some really competitive seats they normally wouldnt.

tl;dr
Yeah governors!
Eh house
BOO SENATE
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Moops?
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