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Topic	Calling it now: 61-37 Cruz wins the Texas election
darkknight109 11/06/18 3:57:39 PM #17:	Mead posted... Its just a guess but I feel like Beto will come out on top People seem excited about him and Ted Cruz is a total turd. 2016 should have showed people how accurate polling data is compared to actual votes on election day The polling data was actually pretty accurate, especially when it came to the popular vote (which Hillary won by nearly the exact amount she was ahead in the polls by). It's easy to miss this, but Trump's victory was actually incredibly narrow - ~100k voters spread across three states brought him the win. Had 55k people across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania swapped their votes from Trump to Clinton, she would have won. When you actually look at the numbers and realize that the election was decided by 0.05% of the counted votes, there's a strong case to be made that this was the closest presidential election ever, with the sole exception of Bush vs. Gore in 2000. Most reputable polls had Trump with a 30% chance of winning - worth noting that 30% isn't zero and a win was well within the margin of error for those polls. --- Kill 1 man: You are a murderer. Kill 10 men: You are a monster. Kill 100 men: You are a hero. Kill 10,000 men, you are a conqueror! <cite>darkknight109 posted [p:911928321] in Calling it... [t:77175894]...</cite> <quote><cite>Mead posted...</cite> <quote>Its just a guess but I feel like Beto will come out on top People seem excited about him and Ted Cruz is a total turd. 2016 should have showed people how accurate polling data is compared to actual votes on election day</quote> The polling data was actually pretty accurate, especially when it came to the popular vote (which Hillary won by nearly the exact amount she was ahead in the polls by). It's easy to miss this, but Trump's victory was actually incredibly narrow - ~100k voters spread across three states brought him the win. Had 55k people across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania swapped their votes from Trump to Clinton, she would have won. When you actually look at the numbers and realize that the election was decided by 0.05% of the counted votes, there's a strong case to be made that this was the closest presidential election ever, with the sole exception of Bush vs. Gore in 2000. Most reputable polls had Trump with a 30% chance of winning - worth noting that 30% isn't zero and a win was well within the margin of error for those polls. --- Kill 1 man: You are a murderer. Kill 10 men: You are a monster. Kill 100 men: You are a hero. Kill 10,000 men, you are a conqueror!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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