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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 206: Acostin' Fragile Don's Pathetic Press Conference
xp1337 11/08/18 3:17:20 PM #231:	Suprak the Stud posted... TheRock1525 posted... Suprak the Stud posted... TheRock1525 posted... Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida. Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat. Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly. I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic. cue Debbie Downer trombone 538 is sticking firm with a +2 gain to Republicans in the Senate. That would mean 53-47 which would assume either a Sinema or Nelson win. Ill do a backflip if that happens, but I dont really know why 538 is that optimistic. In Arizona, most of the outstanding votes are in that big huge county that I forgot the name of. But Sinema won by a very slim margin, the county usually goes red, and they dont know where the votes are from in that state. I would love Sinema in the senate (over Nelson honestly if Im picking one) but I am not optimistic. There's like 650k outstanding votes in AZ. ~475k is Maricopa (that big county). Next biggest is Pima which Sinema won solidly. (~90k I think, ED margin was like 56-44.) Rest is mostly rural. I think if you run the stats on ED margin on those counties and apply them, Sinema falls just short, but if Sinema gets like 52-53% in that Maricopa batch (ED Maricopa was 49.4-48.6 Sinema) it'd put her over the top. Think AZ posts an update at like 5 local time so we may know more then, but it could be days (or even weeks. Think I saw a report that in a previous election for McSally at the congressional district level it took the AP 11 days or something to call her race) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:912059075] in Politics C... [t:77181966]...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote>Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida. Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat.</quote> Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly. I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic. cue Debbie Downer trombone</quote> 538 is sticking firm with a +2 gain to Republicans in the Senate. That would mean 53-47 which would assume either a Sinema or Nelson win.</quote> Ill do a backflip if that happens, but I dont really know why 538 is that optimistic. In Arizona, most of the outstanding votes are in that big huge county that I forgot the name of. But Sinema won by a very slim margin, the county usually goes red, and they dont know where the votes are from in that state. I would love Sinema in the senate (over Nelson honestly if Im picking one) but I am not optimistic.</quote> There's like 650k outstanding votes in AZ. ~475k is Maricopa (that big county). Next biggest is Pima which Sinema won solidly. (~90k I think, ED margin was like 56-44.) Rest is mostly rural. I think if you run the stats on ED margin on those counties and apply them, Sinema falls just short, but if Sinema gets like 52-53% in that Maricopa batch (ED Maricopa was 49.4-48.6 Sinema) it'd put her over the top. Think AZ posts an update at like 5 local time so we may know more then, but it could be days (or even weeks. Think I saw a report that in a previous election for McSally at the congressional district level it took the AP 11 days or something to call her race) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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