The most important bits are: Maricopa - 266k (going to Sinema currently but this was a Flake district 6 years ago - barely. She is doing well in the mail-ins so far though but it is a heterogenous county and huge so if you're a pessimist like me this is what you're worried about. If Sinema can even do 50-50 at this point though she's won.) Pima - 60.8k (This is huge for Sinema. Last time they did a 20k update and it boosted Sinema by 7k. It is Sinema's strongest district overall and the fact it is second highest in votes left is very good.) Pinal - 26.8k (This is good for McSally. She probably ran up her highest numbers here just because it is big and favored McSally 55-41. However, 55-41 isn't going to be nearly enough here, and like 3k came in early today and it barely made a dent in the margins) Coconico - 9.6k (This county is even better for Sinema that Pima. It went 62-35 her favor on election night so you would expect a good gain here for her) Navajo - 4k (It was 50-46 McSally on election night, and early voting is leaning Sinema overall so this probably won't do much in either direction) Mohave - 2k (This is McSally's best county by percentages. 70 to 27 basically. But 2k is such a small number it won't really help at this point)
Overall, this is great for Sinema. Coconico and Pima have 70k between them, while counties favoring McSally only have 33k between them. For McSallly to win, she needs huge numbers in the remaining Maricopa votes. Like...60-40 basically. Possible, depending where the votes are from, but I'd say edge to Sinema for sure.
Coconino was historically a red county, until quite recently. It's the huge rural county in which the Grand Canyon is located. Last election it went blue and there is a trend of counties with national parks going blue, but 62-35 is way above what I would have expected there. Wouldn't count out a lot of the remaining votes going to McSally to make it more respectable a margin in the end.
It went 56-37 Clinton to Trump, and Sinema is a better candidate.
So, nah, I don't think you're right. ---
Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."