LogFAQs > #912168587

Almost all of Mohave (McSally's best district percentagewise) has come in addition to Pinal (still around 22k left there after a 4k or so drop today). This has lowered Sinema's lead from 20.2 to 19.2.

The good news for Sinema is that she is running ahead of her election night totals basically everywhere in early vote returns, which is to be expected. Also Mohave now has just a couple hundred provisional votes left. That leaves Pinal (22k) and Najavo (4k and election night was only a slight lead) as McSally counties outstanding. Sinema still has Pima (60.8k) and Coconino (9.6k) which were her two best counties election night.

Maricopa will have another drop tonight. This is what everyone is waiting for as the bulk of the votes are here (266k). The first two went to Sinema by a good margin, but the reason 538 only has this race as a lean D at the moment is because it is hard to predict where the outstanding ballots are from in the heterogenous district so McSally's best (and only) hope is that the early ballots were tilted in Sinema's favor while the latter will be in hers just due to some random chance. If Sinema wins big again, it starts to become very hard for McSally to have any sort of chance as she'd need to take the last drop by like 70% to 30%
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