LogFAQs > #912169559

My understanding of the AZ SEN Maricopa vote drops is that the first batches (and presumably at least the next one, though it depends on how many they total) is that there's a pile of them that are the "late" early votes that they received late enough that they weren't totaled with the rest of the early vote and these are expected (and have been) more Sinema-friendly. Then there's a pile that were dropped off in person on EDay and these are expected to be more McSally-friendly.

It's not really to do with where in Maricopa these are from (though that would be a factor) but when. At this point more of the remaining Maricopa ballots should be in that latter category I think (and thus McSally's only hope) but Sinema has been running ahead of her EDay margins in the other counties so Sinema's lead will be stronger than expected and thus harder for McSally to catch even though there's a large batch (I think it's ~195k) of Maricopa outstanding votes that should be friendlier to her. Sinema still has outstanding votes in Marciopa that should be friendly to her and Pima.

tl;dr: The Maricopa county outstanding ballots can be divided by time received with the earlier ones being better for Sinema. McSally therefore should make a run with the last ~195k Maricopa votes when we get there but she'd need to run her margins up high there and not only has that not really been the case in other counties, but Pima remains as another source for Sinema to add to her lead.
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