LogFAQs > #912181762

Uh, if this is true, the latest Maricopa drop was really good for Sinema, I think.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061406967686746112

As the thread says, two points:

1. McSally's argument is that the EDay dropoffs will be heavily in her favor based on an R+10 turnout advantage from people who filled ballots at the poll, but in-person Maricopa voters actually voted Sinema +2.4

2. Perhaps more immediately relevant, according to the Maricopa County Recorder, 50k votes were delayed for several days. Presumably (and this is the if here) those are from the pro-Sinema late earlies batch. Which means the ~68k Maricopa just dropped should largely be made up (Like two-thirds) of the pro-McSally batch.

...Sinema won this latest drop by 7 points.

Not a certain thing, but if that's really the case uhhhh, I'd say it's looking good.

(Meanwhile, Nate Cohn (NYT/THE NEEDLE) agrees that things look good for Sinema and says it's very hard to imagine a McSally comeback at this point with Sinema now up 1.5 points.)
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