LogFAQs > #912191722

Late night Arizona updates!

Pima added 24,200 votes, of which it went +24 to Sinema (it was +14 on election night). Maricopa added 68k votes, which went +7 to Sinema (+3 on election night). Yavapai added 1k votes, which went +2 McSally (but had gone +24 to McSally on election night). Navajo added one final batch which went +30 to Sinema (+4 on election night - this is the one that had huge McSally drops earlier in the day so I do not know what is the cause of this huge swinginess but it balances out those earlier ones quite a bit). Finally, Coconino added 3.5k votes which went +30 Sinema (+27 Sinema on election night).

Outstanding votes can be found here:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061433222599327746

264k total
198k Maricopa
36.3k Pima (big for Sinema)
21.6k Pinal (big for McSally)
6.1k Coconino (big for Sinema)
less than 1k everywhere else

Sinema has a lead of 29,832. She needs to pick up 30k in the final 264k, which would be tough, but not impossible. She'd need 147k to Sinema's 117k, which is 55.7% to 44.3% or an 11.4% difference.

BUT Pima and Coconino are quite favorable to Sinema. Let us assume she holds elections there and in Pinal to the same it was on Election Day (which would be impressive for McSally considering almost all updates have been going slightly to decently in Sinema's direction compared to Election Day. But if we assume that:

McSally picks up 11902 in Pinal to Sinema's 9137 (loss of 2765)
Sinema picks up 3782 in Coconino to McSally's 2129 (gain of 1653)
Sinema picks up 20384 in Pima to McSally's 15173 (gain of 5211)

So Sinema actually stands to gain around 6323 votes from non-Maricopa areas. Lets make that an even 6k so account for the few outstanding hundreds in the other rural areas that should go to McSally in greater numbers.

Going into the final batches of Maricopa, you are looking at Sinema having (approximately) a 36k lead with 198k votes. McSally's entire argument is that all of these last Maricopa votes are late "early" votes (i.e. returned the day of) which should go in her favor greatly. I'm not going to argue the logic of that, but let us just say that is true.

Maricopa would need to go 117k to 81k to get her these numbers. She'd need 59% of the vote to Sinema's 41%.

Again, not impossible. But those are really, really daunting numbers. If one more batch comes in and she doesn't shrink the margins significantly, I'd feel comfortable with Sinema winning. ONE DAY MORE. Hopefully.
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