LogFAQs > #912243733

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

More back of the envelope math!

219.8k outstanding with biggest outstanding votes from
Maricopa - 162k
Pima - 36.3k
Pinal - 14.7k
Coconino - 4.8k
everywhere else only has a couple hundred votes

Sinema currently has a lead of 32,392. McSally's campaign keeps saying the rest of the Maricopa votes will favor her because they group their votes differently and most of the remaining are late "early" votes.

Assuming the other counties play out like Election Day (which would be favorable to McSally since most of these updates trended Sinema).
Gain of 1794 in Pinal for McSally (8056 for McSally and 6262 for Sinema)
Gain of 5191 in Pima for Sinema (20364 for Sinema and 15173 for McSally)
Gain of 1311 in Coconino for Sinema (2981 for Sinema and 1670 for McSally)

So outside counties should favor Sinema to the tune of 4708 votes. I'll subtract 100 or so for McSally due to some extra votes she'll get from the rural counties.

Sinema would have a lead of 37k going into Maricopa with 162k remaining. That means the final votes would need to break down 62.5k for Sinema and 99.5k for McSally or 61.4% to 38.6% in her favor. This +22.8 would be a huge shift from the -3 on Election Day.

Again, possible, but the next update needs to go in McSally's favor by at least +10 or so to have any hope.
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