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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
Master Moltar
11/14/18 9:21:06 AM
#111:


Kleenexs Analysis

I will admit that Sephiroth and Tifa looked a lot better in their matches last round than I expected them too. Maybe FF7 isnt that bad after all, even if they still get weighed down by that abysmal early vote. X has also looked extremely good through the first two rounds, though. Its unfortunate that a lot of MMXs results have been marred by SFF and rallies to we still dont have a great idea of where he falls, but I really dont think hes that far off from OG Mega Man. Hes probably also in the running for #10 on the site if you ask me. Thats something I dont think Tifa is going to be capable of beating, even if she should still end up looking all right by the end of things.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man X with 54%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Watching my last analysis wind up being totally off base right nowbut this time Ive got it for sure! Tifa lookedmaybe a tad off in Round 1, only getting 73% on Geno, but rebounded nicely with a 58-42 win over Mewtwo. I know everyone pointed at that match as Mewtwo being a fraud, but thats absolutely ridiculous. 2013 Mewtwo was a product of rallies anyway, and 42% on Tifa really doesnt seem that far from what youd expect from Mewtwos early-round results. The biggest problem with judging this, however, is that for someone whose only loss to a non-Noble Niner was in a fourway with one of the two Noble Niners from her game, she hasnt exactly faced that many Noble Niners! This is, in fact, only her sixth contest, and in the previous five, both Sephiroth and Samus have brought her down twice. Still, it seems odd to think that even though shes faced Sephiroth, a Noble Niner from her own game, in a 1v1 before, her worst 1v1 percentage came against the weakest Noble Niner, Sonic.

So why all the talk about Noble Niners? Because theres every indication that Mega Man X essentially is one! We dont have as much data on him and sadly he faced Draven early last contest and therefore has even fewer valid data points than he should, but it definitely seems plausibleespecially since their lone common 1v1 opponent is Link himself! And X actually got the slightly better percentage on Link, in a year when Links most recent game wasnt the hated Wind Waker. Whats that? 2004 Link is thought to be the strongest Link ever? Feh, hardly. 2004 Link simply lacked for significant non-SFF matches. Outside of actually losing to him in 2003, thats Links worst year against Cloud, and you cant chalk that up to FFVII weakening because Sephiroth managed to do better against Link in 2005 than he did in 2002 even as Cloud was doing worse against Link than in 2003 or 2004. Also, I seem to remember that 2010 Link is literally the only character to ever break 70% on a Noble Niner in a 1v1. Lets just plug in the X-Stat calculator
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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