LogFAQs > #912858523

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Topic	Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1309
red sox 777 11/22/18 2:23:49 PM #143:	charmander6000 posted... red sox 777 posted... charmander6000 posted... Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. What? So you're saying a 1/127 chance has happened in 2 out of 9 contests? ~1/300, but yes. Looks like we've been (un)lucky. The easier explanation is that your arbitrarily chosen number of 1/300 is off, not that we've been ridiculously unlucky to have that chance hit twice in 9 times. I submit the evidence, the best we have, suggests the probability of this kind of event is around 2/9. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:912858523] in Contest St... [t:77220885]...</cite> <quote><cite>charmander6000 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>red sox 777 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>charmander6000 posted...</cite> <quote>Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300.</quote> What? So you're saying a 1/127 chance has happened in 2 out of 9 contests?</quote> ~1/300, but yes. Looks like we've been (un)lucky.</quote> The easier explanation is that your arbitrarily chosen number of 1/300 is off, not that we've been ridiculously unlucky to have that chance hit twice in 9 times. I submit the evidence, the best we have, suggests the probability of this kind of event is around 2/9. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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