LogFAQs > #915516443

Match 91: Tifa Lockhart vs. Mewtwo

Tifa 16669
Mewtwo 12023

Just another piece on the growing mound of evidence that Tifa has always been the #3 FF7 character, except not really because Mewtwo was rallied in 2013. We all know that. Mewtwo wasn't going to be as strong this year.

...Okay, I admit it: I had Mewtwo here in my bracket. And next round. By the time this match actually came around, I'd realized I'd made a mistake and took Tifa in Oracle, albeit with a very low number that got me fairly low in the rankings for that match. That was largely because I was still rooting for Mewtwo, because my bracket needed Mewtwo. We saw very easily in 2010 that Mega Man X was stronger than Luigi; they had a common opponent only a round apart, and yes Luigi probably gets SFF'd harder by Link but they're both probably SFF matches. And Tifa outright had a previous win over Luigi. I would have taken either of them to beat Luigi in Round 4, no question--but Mewtwo, being a true Nintendo character, I expected would suffer from Nintendo hierarchy. I had Luigi > Mewtwo in Round 4 fully expecting that it would be wrong if Mewtwo lost in an earlier round.

Honestly, I identified this as one of the toughest divisions to predict. In Round 1, you've got Ocelot-Dedede. In Round 2, you've got Tifa-Mewtwo, and then in Round 3 you've got the winner of that vs. MMX (although I think I even gave MMX a slim chance of being upset by Dedede if he got past Ocelot--or was it the other way around? I don't remember; neither of those upsets seems likely now but I'm certain I didn't consider MMX an absolute guarantee, merely a heavy favorite.) And then in the division final, Luigi being a likely favorite against one of his three most likely opponents but a likely underdog against the other two. And that's without considering any other result on Luigi's half of the bracket; Tails/Nathan/Chief was a bit of a mess as well.

Match 92: Revolver Ocelot vs. Mega Man X

Ocelot 9062
X 19621

Ocelot's results have always been a tad uneven, as I mentioned last round. But this is unquestionably a good performance for X. The final percentage isn't that far ahead of the Oracle Consensus, but that's with the biggest outlier being an overestimation. There is one other significant outlier and it's on the opposite side, though. At any rate, X still looked like he would probably be slightly favored next round. There's some fun to be had with those numbers but I'll get to that then.
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Also known as Cyberchao X.