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charmander6000s 2019 Canadian Election Prediction

Newfoundland and Labrador
Number of Seats: 7
2015 Results: Liberals 7

In 2015 the Liberals swept the four Atlantic provinces. That will not happen again. Newfoundland and Labrador may be forgiving the Conservatives mistake of calling them irrelevant about a decade ago, but they are not in a position to win a seat just yet. The NDPs rise since the debates likely means they will win back St. Johns East and on a good day they may win the other St. Johns riding.

Prediction: Liberals 5, NDP 2

Prince Edward Island
Number of Seats: 4
2015 Results: Liberals 4

While I feel the Liberals will sweep PEI, it wont be in a dominant fashion. This will likely be the Greens best province in terms of popular vote and they could finish second in one or two ridings, but only the winner gets the seat. The Conservatives have a chance, but if they do win a seat itll likely be a long night for the Liberals.

Prediction: Liberals 4

Nova Scotia
Number of Seats: 11
2015 Results: Liberals 11

Between the four Atlantic provinces, which will have their polls closed for at least two hours before all of the other provinces this one will be the one that will indicate how well of a night the NDP will have. We could see the NDP win as much as three or be shut-out from the province. The Conservatives also have chances in multiple ridings and on a good night they would be able to win at least three of them.

Prediction: Liberals 8, NDP 2, Conservatives 1

New Brunswick
Number of Seats: 10
2015 Results: Liberals 10

Of the four Atlantic provinces, New Brunswick will be the bellwether between the Liberals and Conservatives. Both parties should win three seats a piece while the other four could be an indicator as to how well the party will do across the rest of the nation. Additionally, Fredericton will be the Green partys best shot at winning a seat outside of British Columbia. Historically, the Greens tend to have a poor get out the vote machine and the fear of handing the riding to the Conservatives may cause a few people to jump ship.

Prediction: Liberals 5, Conservatives 5
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