LogFAQs > #929060221

Quebec
Number of Seats: 78
2015 Results: Liberals 40, NDP 16, Conservatives 12, Bloc 10

At the beginning of the election campaign it looked like the Liberals would have a chance at winning a supermajority of seats, but the rise of the Bloc after the debates have pretty much cost the Liberals any chance for a majority. In general, the Liberals will win most of their seats in Montreal, the Conservatives will win most of their seats in Quebec City while the Bloc will win most of their seats across the rest of the province.

The NDPs rise will likely stop them from getting shut out in the province, but the Orange Wave of 2011 is dead. This is also the only place the Peoples Party could win a seat thanks to their leader. His riding could very well go to the Conservatives, likely signalling the death of the party.

Prediction: Bloc 37, Liberals 27, Conservatives 11, NDP 2, Peoples Party 1

Ontario
Number of Seats: 121
2015 Results: Liberals 80, Conservatives 33, NDP 8

Overall Ontario will have the well-known urban/rural divide. While Toronto proper may be a complete sweep for the Liberals, the sub-urban area, the Greater Toronto Area is a hotly contested area. I think it will lean Liberal, but a good night for the Conservatives here would be the difference maker should they form government.

Prediction: Liberals 58, Conservatives 43, NDP 20

Manitoba
Number of Seats: 14
2015 Results: Liberals 7, Conservatives 5, NDP 2

After being shut-out of Winnipeg, the Conservatives will be looking to make gains along the outer region. The NDP may be kicked out of the city, but theyll hold the northern riding. Things will be tough for the Liberals from here west as the vast majority of their winnable ridings belong to Eastern Canada.

Prediction: Conservatives 10, Liberals 3, NDP 1

Saskatchewan
Number of Seats: 14
2015 Results: Conservatives 10, NDP 3, Liberals 1

The rise of the NDP likely saves them from being shut-out in Saskatchewan, but they definitely are not guaranteed to hold any of their seats. While the province has gone very anti-Liberal over the past four years people still love Goodale and thus the Liberals will continue to hold on to the seat until he retires.

Prediction: Conservatives 11, NDP 2, Liberals 1

Alberta
Number of Seats: 34
2015 Results: Conservatives 29, Liberals 4, NDP 1

Speaking of going anti-Liberal, Alberta will be pushing to wipe out the Liberals. On a good night, the Liberals could hold onto a seat, but its unlikely. Similarly, the NDP may lose their seat due to their incumbent retiring, especially if the Liberals siphon a few votes, allowing the Conservatives to come up through the middle.

As an aside, given how close the election is we could see a scenario where the Conservatives win the most votes, but the Liberals win the most seats. It would be because of provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan where in some ridings the Conservatives will win with 70% to over 80% of the vote.

Prediction: Conservatives 33, NDP 1
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