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Topic	In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version)
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 12:39:32 AM #187:	Division 2, Round 3, Match 1 Mass Effect 2 Horizon Zero Dawn https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 This match shouldn't be in contention, with 'shouldn't' being the key word here. Mass Effect 2, by all rights, should breeze past this. It's one of the most beloved games of this generation. It won GotY 2010, did very well in the 'favorite 2 game' poll, and heck it even got a 1 Seed. Horizon Zero Dawn is well-regarded but not on that level. And yet, I can't get over how badly it did in the 2015 Contest. For all the strength it showed in polls, when it came time to thrown down in an actual contest, ME2 simply did not live up to expectations. Starcraft is a strong game but its heydey is long gone, and Mass Effect 2 needed off-site support to seal the deal. Then MGS3 came it just got slaughtered. Look at this silliness: Mass Effect (2015g) VS Mass Effect 2 (2015g) Mass Effect has a strength of 27.93. Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Mass Effect wins with 54.21% of the vote! Does anyone take ME1 in a 1 v 1 matchup? No, but it's a testament to how hugely ME2 underperformed that the stats shook out this way in the first place. Then you've got this: Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Mass Effect 2 wins with 50.82% of the vote! For the record, I think Persona 5 is going to be clearly stronger than Persona 4, and Horizon held up well against Persona 5 (and Breath of the Wild for that matter). If I really wanted to, I could finagle the numbers so that Horizon gets very close to ME2 just based on stats alone. Then you factor in Bioware killing the series, which caused Commander Shepard to almost lose to King Freaking K Rool: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7299-division-8-round-1-shepard-vs-k-rool I'm not taking the upset. It goes too far against conventional wisdom, and it's far more likely that ME2 just got SFFd by MGS3 in a weird way or whatever. It happens. That recent 'favorite 2 game' poll is also very promising, as it came out well after Andromeda damaged the series. But if the UPSET does happen, I won't be entirely surprised. ME2 has to prove itself before I can give it the benefit of the doubt again. Expected Result ME2 > Horizon Zero Dawn 55 - 45 -- Division 2, Round 3, Match 2 Resident Evil 2 Bloodborne / Fire Emblem Awakening https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6097-best-game-ever-day-12-bloodborne-vs-final-fantasy-xii https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6133-best-game-ever-day-21-round-2-dk-country-2-vs-fire-emblem Look, I love Bloodborne. I really love Bloodborne. But even if I give it the benefit of the doubt and say it's increased in strength, that still only lets me pick it over Awakening in what I consider to be a minor fanboy upset pick where the margin of victory will be slim. I think Bloodborne/Awakening is going to be close regardless of which game wins. Resident Evil 2 didn't struggle with Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and Three Houses is going to be the strongest FE game. You could argue that Awakening will be stronger but I'm just not seeing it - Three Houses has gotten more press than any other game in the series, had a really strong fan reception, has already sold more than Awakening, and simply put is a 'bigger deal'. Even if you assume Awakening is stronger for whatever reason, there's still a good bit of room in that GotY for Awakening to be stronger than Three Houses and for RE2 to still come out on top. Picking RE2 to lose here isn't the WORST upset pick but it's not a good one either; I don't expect it to have a problem. Expected Result Resident Evil 2 > Bloodborne / FE Awakening 55 - 45 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935422780] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 2, Round 3, Match 1 Mass Effect 2 Horizon Zero Dawn https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 This match shouldn't be in contention, with 'shouldn't' being the key word here. Mass Effect 2, by all rights, should breeze past this. It's one of the most beloved games of this generation. It won GotY 2010, did very well in the 'favorite 2 game' poll, and heck it even got a 1 Seed. Horizon Zero Dawn is well-regarded but not on that level. And yet, I can't get over how badly it did in the 2015 Contest. For all the strength it showed in polls, when it came time to thrown down in an actual contest, ME2 simply did not live up to expectations. Starcraft is a strong game but its heydey is long gone, and Mass Effect 2 needed off-site support to seal the deal. Then MGS3 came it just got slaughtered. Look at this silliness: Mass Effect (2015g) VS Mass Effect 2 (2015g) Mass Effect has a strength of 27.93. Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Mass Effect wins with 54.21% of the vote! Does anyone take ME1 in a 1 v 1 matchup? No, but it's a testament to how hugely ME2 underperformed that the stats shook out this way in the first place. Then you've got this: Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Mass Effect 2 wins with 50.82% of the vote! For the record, I think Persona 5 is going to be clearly stronger than Persona 4, and Horizon held up well against Persona 5 (and Breath of the Wild for that matter). If I really wanted to, I could finagle the numbers so that Horizon gets very close to ME2 just based on stats alone. Then you factor in Bioware killing the series, which caused Commander Shepard to almost lose to King Freaking K Rool: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7299-division-8-round-1-shepard-vs-k-rool I'm not taking the upset. It goes too far against conventional wisdom, and it's far more likely that ME2 just got SFFd by MGS3 in a weird way or whatever. It happens. That recent 'favorite 2 game' poll is also very promising, as it came out well after Andromeda damaged the series. But if the UPSET does happen, I won't be entirely surprised. ME2 has to prove itself before I can give it the benefit of the doubt again. Expected Result ME2 > Horizon Zero Dawn 55 - 45 -- Division 2, Round 3, Match 2 Resident Evil 2 Bloodborne / Fire Emblem Awakening https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6097-best-game-ever-day-12-bloodborne-vs-final-fantasy-xii https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6133-best-game-ever-day-21-round-2-dk-country-2-vs-fire-emblem Look, I love Bloodborne. I really love Bloodborne. But even if I give it the benefit of the doubt and say it's increased in strength, that still only lets me pick it over Awakening in what I consider to be a minor fanboy upset pick where the margin of victory will be slim. I think Bloodborne/Awakening is going to be close regardless of which game wins. Resident Evil 2 didn't struggle with Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and Three Houses is going to be the strongest FE game. You could argue that Awakening will be stronger but I'm just not seeing it - Three Houses has gotten more press than any other game in the series, had a really strong fan reception, has already sold more than Awakening, and simply put is a 'bigger deal'. Even if you assume Awakening is stronger for whatever reason, there's still a good bit of room in that GotY for Awakening to be stronger than Three Houses and for RE2 to still come out on top. Picking RE2 to lose here isn't the WORST upset pick but it's not a good one either; I don't expect it to have a problem. Expected Result Resident Evil 2 > Bloodborne / FE Awakening 55 - 45 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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