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Topic	Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
Master Moltar 05/05/20 4:46:15 PM #479:	Round 4 Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles Moltars Analysis Persona 4 Golden Round 1 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light Round 2 50.83% vs. Red Dead Redemption Round 3 51.07% vs. Grand Theft Auto V Xenoblade Chronicles Round 1 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2 Round 2 73.32% vs. Overwatch Round 3 59.64% vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses aint no stopping this xenoblade train Persona 4 Golden has done really well to get this far, as beating RDR and GTAV is no small task. P4 was struggling with Dead Rising and getting 30% on RE4 at the start of the decade! It has come a long way, but Xenoblade, unfortunately for it, has powered up just a little bit more. Three Houses might not be as strong as I thought pre-contest, but I still think its around as strong as RDR and GTAV. If Xenoblade had no problem with Three Houses, it shouldnt have any problem with a game that barely got past the Rockstar games. Percentage-wise, if Xenoblade did exert a little bit of SFF over Fire Emblem last round, this could be closer. If FE:TH would have also beaten anything from the top half of the division, then this could be a 60%+ rout. I think the former scenario is more likely. Moltars Bracket: yikes Moltars Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles 56% ____________________________________________________________________________ transiences Analysis This one feels obvious - Xenoblade has just had better performances, or at least it seems that way. Xenoblade really rocked Fire Emblem and had round 1 and 2 performances that were pretty overwhelming, and Xenoblade 2's close loss to Arkham City also suggested that its big brother is legit. It's hard to think that a game that squeaked by GTA and RDR would have a problem here. That said.. what is this uneasy feeling that I have? Make no doubt about it - Xenoblade and Persona is a SFF match through and through. Those two franchises, along with Dragon Quest, are the biggest JRPGs of the last decade. You know how Mass Effect 2 randomly blew up Fallout 4? That's the feeling that I get with this one. Persona is probably the bigger franchise, but there's also a remake stigma around P4G. We had 3 ports/remakes in the bracket and we have 3 remakes remaining in our top 16, so maybe that doesn't actually matter? I'm picking Xenoblade here because it would be hard to justify anything else, but if Persona suddenly throws a cog in Xenoblade's incredible run, I won't be super surprised. I also won't be surprised if Xenoblade just demolishes Persona because, like I said, this is an SFF match. transience's prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 53.51% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonharts Analysis This is probably the most GameFAQs division finals matchup we have, with two JRPGs that have gradually grown in respect and prestige over the course of the last decade. You probably wouldnt see this as a division final in a Game of the Decade on any other site unless its a JRPG fansite, especially when you look at some of the big name games they beat on the way here, like Grand Theft Auto V, Red Dead Redemption, and Overwatch. Honestly, I should have known this is what it would have come down to. In a division that was widely considered the most unpredictable, we got the most obvious outcome! Wish Id had the guts to believe in Persona 4 Golden a little more! Anyway, these games have taken different routes to get here. Persona 4 Golden has narrowly edged out two big name games in consecutive rounds, while Xenoblade has destroyed everything in its path. This feels like a clear end of the line for Persona 4, but is there an actual argument to be made for it winning here? I think your best bet is just to argue that Xenoblade has been overperforming for reasons that wouldnt be repeatable here, such as Nintendo SFF with Splatoon 2 and Three Houses. It would also require Overwatch to be utter garbage, which is probably the easiest part of this to believe! That being said, as much as Id love to believe Persona 4 Golden can win this, I think its asking a bit too much to expect Xenoblade to have three fluky overperformances by sheer coincidence. At that point, its just a pattern proving that Xenoblade is legit. If P4G had managed to be more convincing against GTAV and RDR, Id be willing to entertain it, but theres just no way Xenoblade drops a match to either of those games. I think Persona 4 will hold up well (barring some weird JRPG SFF, I guess), but Xenoblade should claim the division crown. Leonharts Vote: Persona 4 Golden Leonharts Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.44% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenexs Analysis This is one of the more straightforward matches of the round. Persona 4 has had a great, exciting run to make it this far, but Xenoblade has just had this divisions number. You need to do some real funny stuff with stats in order to twist this in a way so that Persona 4 has a chance, and I dont think Im ready to warp reality that much yet. I will say, I think Xenoblade is probably being a little overrated because I think its competition thus far hasnt been particularly great. Splatoon 2, Overwatch and Fire Emblem isnt exactly a murderers row of games (note: please see my ME2/RE2 writeup for my thoughts on Fire Emblem, which may possibly have been proven false at the time of posting). Im actually expecting Persona to put up a reasonable fight here, but the odds are likely too stacked against it to come out with a victory unless theres some weird momentum rally thing...but Xenoblade doesnt feel like a game thats susceptible to succumbing to such a thing. The second nail in my Guru bracket - if its not already dead by the time this match happens. Kleenexs Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guests Analysis Hbthebattle Fun fact: the only way I win Guru is if P4G pulls off the upset here... In other words, I'm fucked. P4G has struggled with almost all of its opponents, and Xenoblade has gotten to dole out massive SFF beatdowns and blow out Overwatch. Xenobade won't have as much SFF here as it did against FE3H, so it should do a little better, but there's almost no chance it loses this. Xenoblade with 57.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Xenoblade casts Hama on Persona for the kill. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ <cite>Master Moltar posted [p:938659046] in Game of th... [t:78621867]...</cite> <quote>Round 4 Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles Moltars Analysis Persona 4 Golden Round 1 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light Round 2 50.83% vs. Red Dead Redemption Round 3 51.07% vs. Grand Theft Auto V Xenoblade Chronicles Round 1 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2 Round 2 73.32% vs. Overwatch Round 3 59.64% vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses aint no stopping this xenoblade train Persona 4 Golden has done really well to get this far, as beating RDR and GTAV is no small task. P4 was struggling with Dead Rising and getting 30% on RE4 at the start of the decade! It has come a long way, but Xenoblade, unfortunately for it, has powered up just a little bit more. Three Houses might not be as strong as I thought pre-contest, but I still think its around as strong as RDR and GTAV. If Xenoblade had no problem with Three Houses, it shouldnt have any problem with a game that barely got past the Rockstar games. Percentage-wise, if Xenoblade did exert a little bit of SFF over Fire Emblem last round, this could be closer. If FE:TH would have also beaten anything from the top half of the division, then this could be a 60%+ rout. I think the former scenario is more likely. Moltars Bracket: yikes Moltars Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles 56% ____________________________________________________________________________ transiences Analysis This one feels obvious - Xenoblade has just had better performances, or at least it seems that way. Xenoblade really rocked Fire Emblem and had round 1 and 2 performances that were pretty overwhelming, and Xenoblade 2's close loss to Arkham City also suggested that its big brother is legit. It's hard to think that a game that squeaked by GTA and RDR would have a problem here. That said.. what is this uneasy feeling that I have? Make no doubt about it - Xenoblade and Persona is a SFF match through and through. Those two franchises, along with Dragon Quest, are the biggest JRPGs of the last decade. You know how Mass Effect 2 randomly blew up Fallout 4? That's the feeling that I get with this one. Persona is probably the bigger franchise, but there's also a remake stigma around P4G. We had 3 ports/remakes in the bracket and we have 3 remakes remaining in our top 16, so maybe that doesn't actually matter? I'm picking Xenoblade here because it would be hard to justify anything else, but if Persona suddenly throws a cog in Xenoblade's incredible run, I won't be super surprised. I also won't be surprised if Xenoblade just demolishes Persona because, like I said, this is an SFF match. transience's prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 53.51% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonharts Analysis This is probably the most GameFAQs division finals matchup we have, with two JRPGs that have gradually grown in respect and prestige over the course of the last decade. You probably wouldnt see this as a division final in a Game of the Decade on any other site unless its a JRPG fansite, especially when you look at some of the big name games they beat on the way here, like Grand Theft Auto V, Red Dead Redemption, and Overwatch. Honestly, I should have known this is what it would have come down to. In a division that was widely considered the most unpredictable, we got the most obvious outcome! Wish Id had the guts to believe in Persona 4 Golden a little more! Anyway, these games have taken different routes to get here. Persona 4 Golden has narrowly edged out two big name games in consecutive rounds, while Xenoblade has destroyed everything in its path. This feels like a clear end of the line for Persona 4, but is there an actual argument to be made for it winning here? I think your best bet is just to argue that Xenoblade has been overperforming for reasons that wouldnt be repeatable here, such as Nintendo SFF with Splatoon 2 and Three Houses. It would also require Overwatch to be utter garbage, which is probably the easiest part of this to believe! That being said, as much as Id love to believe Persona 4 Golden can win this, I think its asking a bit too much to expect Xenoblade to have three fluky overperformances by sheer coincidence. At that point, its just a pattern proving that Xenoblade is legit. If P4G had managed to be more convincing against GTAV and RDR, Id be willing to entertain it, but theres just no way Xenoblade drops a match to either of those games. I think Persona 4 will hold up well (barring some weird JRPG SFF, I guess), but Xenoblade should claim the division crown. Leonharts Vote: Persona 4 Golden Leonharts Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.44% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenexs Analysis This is one of the more straightforward matches of the round. Persona 4 has had a great, exciting run to make it this far, but Xenoblade has just had this divisions number. You need to do some real funny stuff with stats in order to twist this in a way so that Persona 4 has a chance, and I dont think Im ready to warp reality that much yet. I will say, I think Xenoblade is probably being a little overrated because I think its competition thus far hasnt been particularly great. Splatoon 2, Overwatch and Fire Emblem isnt exactly a murderers row of games (note: please see my ME2/RE2 writeup for my thoughts on Fire Emblem, which may possibly have been proven false at the time of posting). Im actually expecting Persona to put up a reasonable fight here, but the odds are likely too stacked against it to come out with a victory unless theres some weird momentum rally thing...but Xenoblade doesnt feel like a game thats susceptible to succumbing to such a thing. The second nail in my Guru bracket - if its not already dead by the time this match happens. Kleenexs Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guests Analysis Hbthebattle Fun fact: the only way I win Guru is if P4G pulls off the upset here... In other words, I'm fucked. P4G has struggled with almost all of its opponents, and Xenoblade has gotten to dole out massive SFF beatdowns and blow out Overwatch. Xenobade won't have as much SFF here as it did against FE3H, so it should do a little better, but there's almost no chance it loses this. Xenoblade with 57.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Xenoblade casts Hama on Persona for the kill. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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