LogFAQs > #938888138

Kleenexs Analysis

I suspect a lot of people are going to have a lot to say about this match, but not me! For one, Im on a bit of a time crunch. Secondly, the last round convinced me. I was definitely a bit down on Skyrim early on, but you know what? I think it has looked fine. Dark Souls has looked good, but I also dont think particularly highly of most of its competition. I think all the games it beat kinda suck, and Im not willing to put Pokemon and Nier so far down the shitter to make Skyrim look bad after that last match. Western hierarchy or whatever can toss off. Skyrim is still super popular and its going to win this. Next round is a different story, but well get there when we get there.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 52.25%

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Guests Analysis MechanicalWall

I said that the optics in Division Finals for both these games were gonna be all over the place... and I was right. I also said that Mario/Smash and Skyrim/Dark Souls were the only interesting matches after Top 16 started and was... mostly right (still reeling from P4/XBC tbh).

Oh boy, where to begin now that there's two entire Divisions worth of data to work with? I guess I'll start with Dark Souls 'cause it had the dumber match and there's not as much to say. Dark Souls was never gonna look good. Period. Either it retained the ridiculous 63% it started the match with, and we'd figure, "Well obviously that's nonsense and the leaks completely doinked TLOU, so the result is illegimate". Or it settles at the percent it actually got and we'd figure, "Well Dark Souls is obviously underperforming because TLOU should have gotten doinked harder by those leaks."

How much are those leaks worth? 2%? 5%? Impossible to know and honestly it's not worth speculating too hard about. What I will say is that 58% really isn't that far off from what many would have projected based on the previous Rounds, so it could just be that the leaks didn't hurt the game much. If that's the case then Dark Souls still looks pretty dang good! Or maybe they did and it looks bad! Oh darn let's move on 'cause this isn't getting us anywhere.

As for Skyrim... well. I'll be upfront and say I really don't think much of Pokemon's half of the Division; NieR is GOOD, certainly a good midcarder, but I was vocal about it being overhyped from the word go; it was probably one of the weaker 2 seeds. R2 of Division 8 and Pokemon only outperforming Nier by a bit in R3 signaled to me that neither game was the potential beast many had worried they would be. And then it turns out MK8 was right around that level? Ehh I'm sure MK8 is GOOD but there has to be a ceiling to how good it could possibly be. Skyrim certainly deserves props for not embarrassing itself on its way to Top 8, but I feel its match was more an indictment on Pokemon and NieR than it was some massive demonstration of strength.

But let the comparisons begin! I have 0 idea what I would take between HGSS/Nier and TLOU because the bottom of Div 8 was so pathetically weak; I THINK I would take TLOU pre-debauchery, but let's look elsewhere for comparison. MK8 60-40'd Uncharted 4, which I feel pretty safe in saying is weaker than UC2. TLOU was SUBSTANTIALLY stronger than UC2 in 2015 (65-35 according to x-stats but I feel UC2 is probably underrated due to Sonic-Pokemon weirdness; maybe it'd be 60-40 instead?). But would a weakened TLOU still do better than 60-40 on UC4 (SFF aside)? I'm kinda feeling it, but I'm kinda not, so, uh...

Y'know, the more I write, the more I realize that TLOU just throws too much of a wrench into any kind of levelheaded analysis of the potential strength of all the pieces involved. So let's do this dumb-dumb style. Dark Souls' percent on its opponent was lower than Skyrim's, AND Dark Souls' opponent has more reason to suck even if it may have originally been stronger than Skyrim's opponent. Therefore Skyrim stronger? Sure, I guess.

Wow, maybe I should have gone dumb-dumb style for every guest analysis I've done instead of writing novels no one reads. Woulda saved me a lot of time.

But one more thing. I have a sneaking suspicion that whatever wins will do so pretty comfortably, ie by more than a single point. Why do I think this? Zero actual reason other than a gut feeling that one of these games has been coasting more than the other through their weakass Divisions. I'm gonna take Skyrim, but if Dark Souls socks it in the jaw I wouldn't be shocked.

MechanicalWall Prediction: Skyrim 53%

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Crew Consensus: The ol Skyrim Sweep

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Moltar Status: hype
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