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Topic	Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
Master Moltar 05/10/20 4:07:52 PM #224:	Round 6 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Moltars Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Round 1 85.02% vs. The Outer Worlds Round 2 84.86% vs. Halo: Reach Round 3 80.25% vs. Final Fantasy XV Round 4 70.22% vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Round 5 68.33% vs. Mass Effect 2 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Round 1 82.98% vs. Tekken 7 Round 2 64.06% vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds Round 3 63.61% vs. Marvels Spider-Man Round 4 55.94% vs. Super Mario Odyssey Round 5 59.61% vs. Xenoblade Chronicles Let us open our GameFAQs and turn to the Book of Nintendo, Chapter 20, Verse 6. Zelda > Smash > Mario > Xenoblade > Fire Emblem Praise be to the Nintendo Hierarchy. The only question here is how much SFF Zelda is going to get on Smash. Considering this would probably be at best a 60/40 for it before that and these two games should be tied pretty closely with each other...this could be pretty ugly. People just see Breath of the Wild as a transformative entry in the series while Smash is...just Smash. Thats not a bad thing as the Smash formula is a proven winner, but this Zelda game means so much more than just another Smash game. I think that among people that have played both, Zelda is going to stand out to them far more. Moltars Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Moltars Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 67% ____________________________________________________________________________ transiences Analysis I hate trying to predict big SFF matches. Zelda wins, but by how much? Take away SFF and this is probably about a 60/40 match - I think ME2 and Xenoblade are probably in the same general vicinity. Add in SFF and.. maybe a doubling? I don't know what to think here. I know that I don't think a lot of Smash, and that Zelda is considered an all-time game while Smash is more of a fun diversion. It isn't a game you devote your life to like people seemed to treat Melee and Brawl. Breath of the Wild, on the other hand, has some true believers who think that it defined open world games for a decade to come. I won't be surprised if this pushes into the 70s, but I'm not going to pick it. One interesting aspect is if there's any spillover from today's matches. Dark Souls, Persona, Witcher, Skyrim -- these are all RPGs. Zelda may not be a true RPG, but it's definitely more RPG-adjacent than Smash is. If we end up with a weird rally situation, Zelda's going to clean up. This site may be Zelda central, but I would say that it's disproportionately a Smash site moreso than it is a Zelda site. Other sites think super highly of Zelda while Smash is more of a fun distraction than a true game of the decade. Not here! I can't wait to get Smash out of this bracket. transience's prediction: Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 68.99% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonharts Analysis This is what were spending one of only three one match per day opportunities on, huh? I honestly dont think theres too much to analyze here that will tell us anything about the final unless Smash Ultimate holds up way better than expected. Now I do expect Smash to resist getting absolutely crushed by SFF here. I think the fanbase being as broad and diverse as it is works to its benefit in that regard. Actually, now that I think about it, this is the first real time weve seen a Smash game face a clearly stronger Nintendo game in an SFF situation 1-on-1 (we saw Melee and Brawl have to contend with OoT in 4-ways in 2009 and they held up fairly well, for the most part), so that provides something worth paying attention to for us stat nerds. So I guess the main question is how much stronger Breath of the Wild is than Smash Ultimate indirectly. Well, if you assume Mass Effect 2 = Xenoblade (and Smash isnt applying any SFF, which Id guess its pretty minor if there is any), Breath of the Wild wins around 60/40. Based on all weve seen so far, Id take Mass Effect 2 over Xenoblade with maybe around 55% max, which gives Zelda a pretty comfortable win, even before you factor in SFF. Leonharts Vote: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Leonharts Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 64.06% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenexs Analysis For a semifinal match theres not much going on here. Zelda has looked like a monster every single round and its not about to let up now. Smash actually seemed somewhat vulnerable against Xenoblade, and while it never had any real shot today, things might end up getting pretty ugly if it turns out that division was a little overrated. Can Zelda make it to the finals laying down at least a doubling on every opponent it faces? Probably not, but I bet itll be close. Kleenexs Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 65% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guests Analysis Luster Soldier This is the most unexciting BotW match of the contest as it's one of the few times we'll see SFF in this contest along with Smash/Mario and possibly Witcher/Skyrim. Plus, it also makes X-Stat comparisons between the first 4 divisions look kind of sketchy. Even more so for Division 3 and 4 which is likely behind 2 layers of SFF. Predicting the amount of SFF that will happen in this match is rather tricky. Even a match like Link/Ganondorf in 2018 was being overpredicted in the amount of SFF that actually happened, and this was after most of us correctly assumed Link wasn't going to repeat the same level of performance from 2004. I still ended up predicting that match about 3% higher than the final result, even after going about 6% lower than the 2004 match. It's very clear that SFF in general has been much weaker than it used to be. BotW/Smash Ultimate will be much closer to Link/Mario than Link/Ganondorf in the amount of SFF that will actually happen. The 2017 GotY polls could provide a rough ceiling for how high BotW can go. BotW got 67.12% directly on Mario Odyssey in the Switch GotY poll. I think that result may have been a slight overperformance for BotW since it came out nearly 8 months before Mario Odyssey, so BotW probably had a larger than normal playrate advantage by the time the GotY polls started. Smash Ultimate has since proven that it's stronger than Mario Odyssey, so you can narrow down the potential max for this match even more. I suspect Smash Ultimate resists the SFF better than Mario Odyssey as Smash fans may be more likely to be hardcore fans of their game who aren't as likely to switch their vote to BotW. Hardcore Mario fans aren't as common, so BotW should be able to SFF Mario games a bit harder than Smash games. The amount of SFF will likely be in the range of 2 to 6 extra points of percentage, with the expected result somewhere in the 62-66% range. I think the result has more of a chance of being on the lower end of that range than the higher end. Luster Soldier's Bracket and Second Chance Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Luster Soldier's Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 64.59% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Zelda turns Smash into a spirit. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ <cite>Master Moltar posted [p:938938371] in Game of th... [t:78661279]...</cite> <quote>Round 6 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Moltars Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Round 1 85.02% vs. The Outer Worlds Round 2 84.86% vs. Halo: Reach Round 3 80.25% vs. Final Fantasy XV Round 4 70.22% vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Round 5 68.33% vs. Mass Effect 2 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Round 1 82.98% vs. Tekken 7 Round 2 64.06% vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds Round 3 63.61% vs. Marvels Spider-Man Round 4 55.94% vs. Super Mario Odyssey Round 5 59.61% vs. Xenoblade Chronicles Let us open our GameFAQs and turn to the Book of Nintendo, Chapter 20, Verse 6. Zelda > Smash > Mario > Xenoblade > Fire Emblem Praise be to the Nintendo Hierarchy. The only question here is how much SFF Zelda is going to get on Smash. Considering this would probably be at best a 60/40 for it before that and these two games should be tied pretty closely with each other...this could be pretty ugly. People just see Breath of the Wild as a transformative entry in the series while Smash is...just Smash. Thats not a bad thing as the Smash formula is a proven winner, but this Zelda game means so much more than just another Smash game. I think that among people that have played both, Zelda is going to stand out to them far more. Moltars Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Moltars Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 67% ____________________________________________________________________________ transiences Analysis I hate trying to predict big SFF matches. Zelda wins, but by how much? Take away SFF and this is probably about a 60/40 match - I think ME2 and Xenoblade are probably in the same general vicinity. Add in SFF and.. maybe a doubling? I don't know what to think here. I know that I don't think a lot of Smash, and that Zelda is considered an all-time game while Smash is more of a fun diversion. It isn't a game you devote your life to like people seemed to treat Melee and Brawl. Breath of the Wild, on the other hand, has some true believers who think that it defined open world games for a decade to come. I won't be surprised if this pushes into the 70s, but I'm not going to pick it. One interesting aspect is if there's any spillover from today's matches. Dark Souls, Persona, Witcher, Skyrim -- these are all RPGs. Zelda may not be a true RPG, but it's definitely more RPG-adjacent than Smash is. If we end up with a weird rally situation, Zelda's going to clean up. This site may be Zelda central, but I would say that it's disproportionately a Smash site moreso than it is a Zelda site. Other sites think super highly of Zelda while Smash is more of a fun distraction than a true game of the decade. Not here! I can't wait to get Smash out of this bracket. transience's prediction: Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 68.99% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonharts Analysis This is what were spending one of only three one match per day opportunities on, huh? I honestly dont think theres too much to analyze here that will tell us anything about the final unless Smash Ultimate holds up way better than expected. Now I do expect Smash to resist getting absolutely crushed by SFF here. I think the fanbase being as broad and diverse as it is works to its benefit in that regard. Actually, now that I think about it, this is the first real time weve seen a Smash game face a clearly stronger Nintendo game in an SFF situation 1-on-1 (we saw Melee and Brawl have to contend with OoT in 4-ways in 2009 and they held up fairly well, for the most part), so that provides something worth paying attention to for us stat nerds. So I guess the main question is how much stronger Breath of the Wild is than Smash Ultimate indirectly. Well, if you assume Mass Effect 2 = Xenoblade (and Smash isnt applying any SFF, which Id guess its pretty minor if there is any), Breath of the Wild wins around 60/40. Based on all weve seen so far, Id take Mass Effect 2 over Xenoblade with maybe around 55% max, which gives Zelda a pretty comfortable win, even before you factor in SFF. Leonharts Vote: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Leonharts Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 64.06% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenexs Analysis For a semifinal match theres not much going on here. Zelda has looked like a monster every single round and its not about to let up now. Smash actually seemed somewhat vulnerable against Xenoblade, and while it never had any real shot today, things might end up getting pretty ugly if it turns out that division was a little overrated. Can Zelda make it to the finals laying down at least a doubling on every opponent it faces? Probably not, but I bet itll be close. Kleenexs Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 65% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guests Analysis Luster Soldier This is the most unexciting BotW match of the contest as it's one of the few times we'll see SFF in this contest along with Smash/Mario and possibly Witcher/Skyrim. Plus, it also makes X-Stat comparisons between the first 4 divisions look kind of sketchy. Even more so for Division 3 and 4 which is likely behind 2 layers of SFF. Predicting the amount of SFF that will happen in this match is rather tricky. Even a match like Link/Ganondorf in 2018 was being overpredicted in the amount of SFF that actually happened, and this was after most of us correctly assumed Link wasn't going to repeat the same level of performance from 2004. I still ended up predicting that match about 3% higher than the final result, even after going about 6% lower than the 2004 match. It's very clear that SFF in general has been much weaker than it used to be. BotW/Smash Ultimate will be much closer to Link/Mario than Link/Ganondorf in the amount of SFF that will actually happen. The 2017 GotY polls could provide a rough ceiling for how high BotW can go. BotW got 67.12% directly on Mario Odyssey in the Switch GotY poll. I think that result may have been a slight overperformance for BotW since it came out nearly 8 months before Mario Odyssey, so BotW probably had a larger than normal playrate advantage by the time the GotY polls started. Smash Ultimate has since proven that it's stronger than Mario Odyssey, so you can narrow down the potential max for this match even more. I suspect Smash Ultimate resists the SFF better than Mario Odyssey as Smash fans may be more likely to be hardcore fans of their game who aren't as likely to switch their vote to BotW. Hardcore Mario fans aren't as common, so BotW should be able to SFF Mario games a bit harder than Smash games. The amount of SFF will likely be in the range of 2 to 6 extra points of percentage, with the expected result somewhere in the 62-66% range. I think the result has more of a chance of being on the lower end of that range than the higher end. Luster Soldier's Bracket and Second Chance Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Luster Soldier's Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 64.59% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Zelda turns Smash into a spirit. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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