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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/24/20 5:10:56 PM
#153:


Round 1 Division 8 Day 15
Fate / Grand Order 33.80%
Journey 66.20%

Prediction Percentage 62.83%

This match was expected by many to give us the weakest game in round 2, which would end up providing Skyrim with yet another target on its cover before it proved to be wrong. Journey got rolled over by Final Fantasy VII in 2015, a game that most of us knows get a fair share of votes against it for always winning. It finished up near the very bottom of the x-stats and no one was really surprised. Its a pretty game, and while it has gotten its prestige here and there on the internet, were not the place to get it from. We had no expectations for it, and rightfully so.

Then theres Fate / Grand Order, which has just about no business getting a seed that high. People know what it is because the anime series is pretty big but being the only mobile game in the bracket probably says a lot about how much we think of those. Ive said before that Pokemon GO shouldve been in the contest. I stand by that, but not because I think it wouldve been worth anything. A few people picked Fate / Zero, but Id expect that to be lack of faith in Journey more than anything. As I said, many people expected this match to give is the weakest game in round 2, even if a few other matches were brought up as well.

Journey did better than the average oracle expected of it and no one picked against it there. We still expected Fate / Zero to among the worst games in the bracket and its weird how it ends up avoiding bottom 20 here. Perhaps the name helped. Im thinking its a game enough people have tried out to prevent it from being destroyed so it has a possible larger playrate than the other bottom games. It drew a game we have previously shown to not cared about, which is perfect for taking advantage of such a playrate. It was also the top option in the bracket. Flip the seeds and Journey certainly scores a higher prediction percentage. On top of getting a good draw itself, Journey is probably also a bad draw for Skyrim being as different from it as it is. Skyrim has its anti-votes, but still ended up getting the job done for many rounds. That probably helped Fate / Zero escape the bottom. I think it couldve easily gotten there elsewhere.

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