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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/26/20 6:12:42 PM
#180:


Round 2 Division 2 Day 18
Mass Effect 2 66.88%
Fallout 4 33.12%

Prediction Percentage 58.29%

Today was a very exciting day because people felt like each game had a chance in all four matches, which never happens. Now hold that thought and look at this result. Fallout 4 got killed completely. Its hilarious when matches fool us like this. I was over 8% away in my oracle prediction and I was still closer than the consensus. No one actually thought Mass Effect 2 could drop the match, but we sure didnt think itd look good doing this after its previous match.

Resident Evil 7 was instantly redeemed of course and its yet another point in the bag for 2017. Its one of the two contenders for most underseeded game in the bracket, only rivaled by Mario Kart 8. We didnt fully know that yet, but it was already clear that it was in large scale. Mass Effect 2 was thought to have a really hard time winning division after last round, but now it looked like it could still do that. If the Bloodborne rally had any effect on this match it was actually in favor of Fallout 4, because Mass Effect 2 dropped as the day went on, but it should be mentioned that Bethesda games usually rises as the day goes by, so this was likely mostly unaffected.

No one took the Fallout 4 upset, but Im willing to bet someone would have tried the uspet if we hadnt gotten the idea that indie games from the early part of the decade werent very good, which made VVVVVVs big loss look less impressive. Mass Effect 2 would still have been the favorite, but it wouldve been by a bit less. Part of the reason that no one took it is probably also that its hard to pick Bethesda games in a debatable match, especially the ones from Fallout 4 onwards. It had quite the backlash and it shows today. Remember when Fallout 3 got to the semi-finals last contest? That sure was a hard fall.

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