LogFAQs > #939824441

Round 2 Division 3 Day 19
Octopath Traveler 49.64%
Shovel Knight 50.36%

Prediction Percentage 18.86%

Who couldve guessed that this would be one of the absolute best matches of the entire contest? Shovel Knight was picked by a solid number of gurus to win this match but by far the most of them had it beating Undertale today. Very few people expected Octopath Traveler to be here, but even fewer people thought it would stand a chance. Almost everyone that did not pick Undertale to round 3 did not do so, because they expected Undertale to receive some similar anti-voting to what Draven got two years ago. Most people didnt think it would be enough and that it could use its momentum to ride to round 3 in similar fashion to what L-Block did in the past.

Not many were expecting a close match today, but it was exciting right from the beginning. They were neck to neck for the first five minutes, almost equal, and they went back and forth. Shovel Knight would make a minimal jump next update, but then Octopath stole the lead. Some argued Shovel Knight had the bracket votes and Octopath would run with it now, but others knew that most people werent bracket voting today because they had Undertale winning this match. Look at the prediction percentage and you see the proof. Octopath Traveler likely has quite a bit less than that, it already had close to this in round 1, and only a small handful of the gurus that picked Octopath in round 1 did so again.

True enough, Octopath looked to be the bracket vote winner, probably as a minor bandwagon factor. Shovel Knight took it all back in the coming update and build on it afterward. Octopath would make its small cuts, but Shovel Knight would gain a good bit more. In the span of about four hours it would have build a lead of about 300 votes and almost no one one thought the match still lived.

Then the night hours came and put the brakes in. It was similar to Celeste vs. Rayman Legends overnight, but Octopath initially didnt make the same push and Shovel Knight looked to have a hold of the match. As morning came to Europe Octopath would stop stalling and start making progression. It was nothing fast at first, but it cut the lead down to below 300 again clearly moving forward. At this point people began taking notice, those of us awake at least, because Rayman had won its match with a bit of room to spare, so if Octopath could keep this up, it could win it.

Octopath kept slowly cutting the lead down. The pace was inconsistent, but it went in one direction and a lead change seemed inevitable as the lead went down below 100 votes. With about 50 votes left to be cut, a rally thread was put on Shovel Knights subreddit, which seemed to halt Octopaths cutting a bit, but not to anything major. Its hard to tell how much it actually did, because it was also when NA was beginning to wake up and everyone expected that to give Shovel Knight some more footing. The match was around 50 votes for a while.

A rally thread was then also put up on Octopaths subreddit and that one later changed the course of the match. At first, it was successful enough to remove most of the remaining lead, but it looked to mostly a small spike. Octopath got close but couldnt quite get there. Shovel Knight was ahead by nine votes, then three votes, then three votes again and then a single vote, but it just wouldnt drop the lead. It looked like the reddit rallies have run their course unless they gained significant traction.

Shovel Knight gained a little bit again from there, which might have been rallying I suppose, but is probably mostly the morning vote coming I think. It wasnt all too fast. Then came the drama suddenly. As Shovel Knight just gained to be ahead by 46 votes, the moderators of the Octopath subreddit pinned it at the top of the page, meaning it didnt really need to traction, everyone entering that subreddit would see it right away and they would know it had the moderators support. Its effect was plain to see. Octopath had a huge spike and the next update tied the match. It did the same thing again to take the lead of 50 votes.

Octopath slowed a bit down from that point, but a lot of people thought the match was over at that point. Shovel Knight didnt have anything to counter that with. While the first two updates were the most beastly, Octopath would have the rally thread pinned there for the rest of match, meaning a consistent boost throughout the day as more people visit the page. Octopath went up slowly but steadily and was leading comfortably with 8 hours to go.

Then Shovel Knight really began stalling. Everyone was awake again now and the rallies had reached their potential. Shovel Knight did not lead Octopath get to a lead of 200 votes, though it was close at time. Shovel Knight then attempted to move things in its direction again, but it was a bumpy vote. Every now and then, Octopath would have a killer update, which often cancelled about 3 cuts, so it took a lot of time for Shovel Knight to get anywhere. With five hours to go, it still needed to cut off 105 votes. At the current pace, everything could happen. Shovel Knight had the time, but it was moving so slow that Octopath could perhaps do more if it wanted to. It seemed that most people on board 8 wanted Octopath to win, with most Shovel Knight supports being the ones that picked it to win today. That could end up bailing Octopath out if necessary.

Shovel Knight made a solid push to get the lead from 101 and down below 50 before Octopath really hit the brakes. Then they stalled there for hours. Shovel Knight won by far the most updates, but they were almost never particularly big and Octopath had some seemingly random big updates every know and then. Octopath really stalled, as is natural in the later hours of our matches these days. Trends are hardly there anymore.

With two hours to go, Shovel Knight took the lead with 11 votes, but it couldnt get anywhere with it. Octopath cut and then took the lead back to be ahead by a single vote. Then Shovel Knight took it back and lead by under 10 votes for four updates. It seemed like the match would come down to the last second. This was super exciting, because our lack of trends almost always has it so that matches wont be exciting near the end, but when the match seems to naturally land at just about it even, they can still be!

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.