LogFAQs > #940940653

red sox 777 posted...

That seems very low. What is your opinion on the studies regarding the percentage of people with antibodies? Those seem to consistently find an infection rate somewhere around an order of magnitude higher - I think the one done in Lombardy had 50%+ and NY was around 30%?

I've been struggling to make sense of the huge disparity between the antibody testing and the other testing.

NYC or NY state? The same 1% death rate estimate applied to NYC would give an estimate of about 20% of the city being infected. A death rate of ~0.66% would get you 30% infected.

I'm highly skeptical of the seroprevalence studies for areas without huge outbreaks (like the Santa Clara study that claimed a 3% prevalence a month or two ago was actually consistent with 0% prevalence if they considered false positives correctly), but they should be more reliable in areas that were extremely hard hit because false positives have a weaker effect on the results.

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Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ!