LogFAQs > #940940751

SmartMuffin posted...

Easy. There's a non-trivial portion of the population that's basically immune to COVID. That's why we're seeing peaks and falls in every relevant statistic in every jurisdiction that generally don't correlate at all with government-ordered lockdowns.

If a big portion of the population has natural immunity, then herd immunity is much easier to reach.

I am leaning toward the idea of the antibody tests being right and a big share of the population having immunity already, whether by past infection or natural immunity, because the numbers are not surging as high as one would expect otherwise. The virus went from one city in China to massive waves of death across the world in 2 months. The number of active cases in Florida when they reopened was probably higher than the number of active cases in NY when they closed (or, if not, then almost certainly higher than 2 weeks before that). But, we haven't seen the exponential curve we saw earlier on. That suggests that the actual infection rate has been much higher and the fatality rate lower.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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