LogFAQs > #946329131

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Topic	Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion
Corrik7 10/26/20 3:53:39 PM #109:	masterplum posted... I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen He doesn't need anything more than what you said he had in 2016. He could lose every blue state by 20+ more points and lose 4% off all his reliable red states. As long as he skates by in the midwest and florida, he should in theory win. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946329131] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>masterplum posted... </cite> <quote>I just don't see a nationwide change in a landscape where 95% of people are 100% set already. Trump needs to A: Hope Republican turnout is substantially better than Democrat turnout (Looking exceedingly unlikely based on early voting numbers) Or B: Hope for systematic polling error across the entire country Trump had A last time, but he didn't have B. Polls actually underestimated Clinton support in deep blue states which led to the popular vote differential. What he did have is polling error in the rust belt. He just needs the world this time. I don't think it's going to happen</quote>He doesn't need anything more than what you said he had in 2016. He could lose every blue state by 20+ more points and lose 4% off all his reliable red states. As long as he skates by in the midwest and florida, he should in theory win. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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