LogFAQs > #946229065

Corrik7 posted...

I am interested to see the next Minnesota Senator poll. The nose dive over the last month towards the Republican is weird. I expect the next one to be around +5 for the Dem but still that has to be worrying for now.

I'm not too concerned yet, but they have definitely been underpolled. The polls from 538 look like this:

Mason Dixon (B+) (Sept 21 - 23) - Smith +8
Suffolk (A) (Sept 20 - 24) - Smith +10
SurveyUSA (A) (Oct 1 - 6) - Smith +7

These are too old to really be relevant now, but they're all from good pollsters and have around the same value. Then there are the more recent polls:

Change Research (C-) (Oct 12-15) - Smith +4
SurveyUSA (A) (Oct 16-20) - Smith +1
Civiqs (B/C) (Oct 17-20) - Smith +11

Both Change Research and Civiqs are not particularly well regarded pollsters so those polls I'd take with a grain of salt. The big one is SurveyUSA showing a one point race, which is out of line with everything before it. It is just one poll, but if you see another good poll showing a close race, then this suddenly becomes a race to watch.

...which sucks so yeah more polling here please.


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