I'm not too concerned yet, but they have definitely been underpolled. The polls from 538 look like this:
Mason Dixon (B+) (Sept 21 - 23) - Smith +8 Suffolk (A) (Sept 20 - 24) - Smith +10 SurveyUSA (A) (Oct 1 - 6) - Smith +7
These are too old to really be relevant now, but they're all from good pollsters and have around the same value. Then there are the more recent polls:
Change Research (C-) (Oct 12-15) - Smith +4 SurveyUSA (A) (Oct 16-20) - Smith +1 Civiqs (B/C) (Oct 17-20) - Smith +11
Both Change Research and Civiqs are not particularly well regarded pollsters so those polls I'd take with a grain of salt. The big one is SurveyUSA showing a one point race, which is out of line with everything before it. It is just one poll, but if you see another good poll showing a close race, then this suddenly becomes a race to watch.
...which sucks so yeah more polling here please.
The civiqs poll must be new. I hadn't seen it before. Or it's one of those random ass online polls.
Last I saw the last month of polls was
10 > 8 > 4 > 1
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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)