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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 331: Borat to the Brain
xp1337 10/24/20 7:50:39 AM #380:	Suprak the Stud posted... The good news is there were a slew of other national polls today that looked quite good and that IBD poll had been at +5 or so for a while now which is strange. Biden still polling really well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, too. But it is becoming increasingly possible we wont know the winner come Election Day unless Florida pulls through for us which is a position I dont like. Silver has noted, and a slew of the other data guys have agreed, that district-level polling has looked godawful for Trump and suggests he is in serious trouble, moreso than the state polls might suggest. Silver was saying that before adjusting for partisanship (because he's guessing there are more Dem internals than Rs) it looks like a 10-11 point shift in favor of Biden vs. Clinton... which translates to a 12-13 point national lead for Biden. Even you knock like 1-3 points off that to make that adjustment... Another (Enten, I think, without finding the tweet again) noted that even the GOP internals (which as we've discussed are likely only publicly released if they're outliers in their favor) are showing Trump running 5 points behind 2016. Just something worth keeping in mind before getting super anxious (though after 2016 I blame no one for it; even I can't completely shut down the anxiety) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:946235061] in Politics C... [t:79055896]...</cite> <quote>Suprak the Stud posted... </cite> <quote>The good news is there were a slew of other national polls today that looked quite good and that IBD poll had been at +5 or so for a while now which is strange. Biden still polling really well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, too. But it is becoming increasingly possible we wont know the winner come Election Day unless Florida pulls through for us which is a position I dont like.</quote>Silver has noted, and a slew of the other data guys have agreed, that district-level polling has looked godawful for Trump and suggests he is in serious trouble, moreso than the state polls might suggest. Silver was saying that before adjusting for partisanship (because he's guessing there are more Dem internals than Rs) it looks like a 10-11 point shift in favor of Biden vs. Clinton... which translates to a 12-13 point national lead for Biden. Even you knock like 1-3 points off that to make that adjustment... Another (Enten, I think, without finding the tweet again) noted that even the GOP internals (which as we've discussed are likely only publicly released if they're outliers in their favor) are showing Trump running 5 points behind 2016. Just something worth keeping in mind before getting super anxious (though after 2016 I blame no one for it; even I can't completely shut down the anxiety) --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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