LogFAQs > #947737895

LurkerFAQs, Active DB, DB1, DB2, DB3, DB4, DB5, DB6, Database 7 ( 07.18.2020-02.18.2021 ), DB8, DB9, DB10, DB11, DB12, Clear

Topic List	Page List: 1
Topic	Politics Containment Topic 347: The Indian in the Cabinet
TheRock1525 11/29/20 4:53:01 PM #328:	xp1337 posted... When 538 analyzed how the various polling firms did relative to each other in 2018, Trafalgar and Ras were both Bottom 5 (of the 31 outfits that had at least 5 released polls in 2018) so idk where any idea that they totally called it then comes from lmao. 538 goes on to note that looking at the listing, that 4/5 of the Bottom 5 use IVR (robo-calls) as their (or part of) method of collecting data and that IVR tends to favor Republicans so they look good when Republicans overperform polls writ-large (as he notes some IVR pollsters did good in 2016) but look terrible when it goes the other way (2018). The same logic would seemingly apply here for 2020. tbqh takeaway to me seems that polls have yet to figure out how to account for how Trump himself being on the ballot uniquely drives Republican turnout. Honestly, the fact that there was a study that showed people with zero social connections voted overwhelmingly for Trump might explain it. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. <cite>TheRock1525 posted [p:947737895] in Politics C... [t:79132949]...</cite> <quote>xp1337 posted... </cite> <quote>When 538 analyzed how the various polling firms did relative to each other in 2018, Trafalgar and Ras were both Bottom 5 (of the 31 outfits that had at least 5 released polls in 2018) so idk where any idea that they totally called it then comes from lmao. 538 goes on to note that looking at the listing, that 4/5 of the Bottom 5 use IVR (robo-calls) as their (or part of) method of collecting data and that IVR tends to favor Republicans so they look good when Republicans overperform polls writ-large (as he notes some IVR pollsters did good in 2016) but look terrible when it goes the other way (2018). The same logic would seemingly apply here for 2020. tbqh takeaway to me seems that polls have yet to figure out how to account for how Trump himself being on the ballot uniquely drives Republican turnout.</quote> Honestly, the fact that there was a study that showed people with zero social connections voted overwhelmingly for Trump might explain it. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List	Page List: 1