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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Retro Summer 2008 Analysis!*~
PostContestUlti
12/06/20 2:35:11 AM
#67:


Division 7 Round 1: Big Boss, Jinjo, Kirby, and Lucas

Big Boss - 66033 [48.08%]
Jinjo - 13034 [9.49%]
Kirby - 50515 [36.78%]
Lucas - 7766 [5.65%]
Total Votes - 137348

To understand how thoroughly and utterly absurd this result was, you have to travel back in time to how people thought back in 2008. Even with Metal Gear Solids 3 and 4 being fresh in everyone's minds, we had already seen Big Boss in a contest. Twice, in fact. Go look at how he did. Even with getting into round 3 in 2007, Big Boss got there by default unless you want to call his win over Magus some huge shocker. But does an upset win over Magus even count?

There were also the LOL x-stats, which were the holiest of holy grails of prognostication at the time.

Big Boss (2007c) VS Kirby (2007c)

Big Boss has a strength of 16.22.
Kirby has a strength of 22.67.

Kirby wins with 64.23% of the vote!
A win of 39,004 with 137,088 total votes cast.

Big Boss (2005c) VS Kirby (2005c)

Big Boss has a strength of 17.62.
Kirby has a strength of 34.99.

Kirby wins with 74.82% of the vote!
A win of 42,751 with 86,117 total votes cast.

Throwing Jinjo and Lucas into a poll wasn't going to close that gap, regardless of how much Nintendo LFF or BrawlFEAR existed. There was just no way. As such, just about everyone penciled in Kirby > Big Boss, assumed it would be as boring as the litany of "heavy favorite > easy second place" matches we had this contest, and called it a day. Even when the match picture came out and it looked like Solid Snake himself was in the picture, people didn't think much of it. This is <i>Kirby</i> we're talking about, after all. If anyone has a match picture or sore thumb advantage in a lol 4way poll, it's him.

Then the match started and people just totally and completely lost their minds. Not only did Big Boss easily win, but Kirby never even came close, even early when board/bracket votes are a thing. This led to all sorts of absurd extrapolation for the future of this contest, including a bunch of people erroneously claiming Nintendo was dead and buried, a bunch of people claiming Big Boss was about to go on a deep contest run, and various other wild goose chases that happen after every upset. You know how these days when anything gets rallied in round 1, a bunch of people start claiming the contest is over? Imagine that here, but on a much bigger scale given people actually cared about our contests back then. This match was that insane. Kirby was probably hurt by Jinjo and Lucas to a degree, but neither that nor any match picture should have made up the huge gap between these two characters. I'm also not much of a "pictures matter" guy, but that's a different conversation for a different day.

And I will yet again say this match is why the 4way format blows. Can you even imagine this match as a 1v1 Big Boss vs Kirby match, with Kirby <i>losing?</i> The internet would have exploded. As-is, it was a fun result that caused a meltdown, but ultimately it didn't matter. Both characters advanced, and round 2 would have Raiden of all characters in the poll. That right there nipped any hopes of a Big Boss run.

Fourways suck. They really do. They rob us of so much. Just imagine this as a 1v1 with Big Boss actually winning. It's one of the great what-ifs. As-is, we got the result we all expected, just in the reverse order. For all the meltdowns and all the nonsense, it wouldn't amount to much of anything. And it <i>should</i> have, which is why after 2009, the stupid 4ways never came back.

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