LogFAQs > #948987782

MartianManchild posted...

Maybe instead of angrily smashing the keyboard, take some time to write out your thoughts so they actually make sense. Im sure youre trying to make a good point, although somewhat foolish and shortsighted, but what you wrote out isnt very coherent. Please feel free to try again though.

Current flu cases/deaths=(Typical flu cases/deaths without masks/distancing)*(Mask/distancing protective factor)
Current Covid cases/deaths=(Hypothetical Covid cases/deaths without masks/distancing)*(Mask/distancing protective factor)

A little algebra will let you combine that system of equations into the following:
(Typical flu)*(Current Covid)/(Current flu) = How bad Covid would be without measures

The factor by which masks and distancing have reduced the severity of the flu season can reasonably be presumed to be roughly equal to the factor by which they have reduced the severity of the Covid pandemic. In practice, it's not going to be so neatly linear, but that's a close enough approximation for communicating the point that Covid would be far worse if not for the measures that have been taken.

Furthermore, as witty as I'm sure you think that facebook post is, it grossly misrepresents both the situation and the CDC's position on the matter. The CDC has not said that nobody is wearing masks/distancing (at least, not outside of describing small-scale situations in which everyone present is observably not complying, which is obviously not what is being suggested in that post). What they have said is that compliance with recommendations isn't good enough to get Covid under control, which is true. The measures that are being taken are having an effect (both on Covid and on influenza, as an added bonus), but Covid continues to rampage out of control because those measures haven't been accepted to enough of an extent to stop it.

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