LogFAQs > #949482477

LuciferSage posted...

Not if we're the total improbable occurrence.

"If there are a billion possible worlds that are perfect for the genesis of life, but the odds of life ever arising on one of those worlds is something like 1-in-1 trillion, that would make it incredibly improbable that WE exist, let alone anyone else."

Ultimately, the size of the universe and the number of life-bearing planets in it are kind of meaningless factors unless we know what the odds of life ARE (and the odds of it ever surviving and evolving to the point where it would develop meaningful awareness). And we have absolutely no idea. Even things like the oft-quoted Drake Equation is mostly just pulling numbers out of one's ass and blindly guessing. It's about as reliable and accurate as asking a Magic 8-Ball whether or not there's advanced life out there.



LuciferSage posted...

but how many of those civilizations would ever meet face-to-face given the rate of expansion in the universe?

This is the other thing most people never really consider, especially since very few people truly comprehend just how VAST the empty spaces in the universe ARE, and how far apart everything is.

Worse, the standard assumption that radio waves travel "forever" has sort of been proven false, and the current understanding is that radio waves probably won't propagate beyond 100 light years or so before they degrade to what is essentially random noise (meaning the outer edge of our transmissions are already effectively "static"). So no one out there is ever going to find us (and we'll likely never find them) unless they're already in our backyard for some reason. Which is utterly statistically unlikely because of the aforementioned size of the universe thing.

It's the equivalent of a scenario where the end of the world happens and there are only two humans left on Earth, with no means of communicating long-distance, with no idea of where the other person is, and with one starting in Los Angeles while the other starts in London. And then trying to figure out how likely it is that they'll ever find each other if they travel the world and occasionally shout at the top of their voice in the hopes that someone else will hear there.

Humans basically WANT intelligent alien life to be out there and aware of us because we're existentially terrified of being alone. But the entirety of human history is basically an eyeblink in the lifetime of the Earth (let alone the universe), and we're like one drop of water in an ocean the size of the solar system. Even if we survive for another million years (which we almost certainly won't), odds are no one else is ever going to find us, and we're never going to find anyone else.

(And that's assuming we should even WANT to be found, and that potential aliens out there aren't marauding reavers or self-constructing Von Neumann war machines that harvest and destroy everything they encounter, or the space equivalent of Europeans discovering the Americas.)
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