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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1365
MetalmindStats
01/21/21 7:27:39 AM
#309:


https://pastebin.com/gMwzdkN8

Above is my contribution to the renewed 2015 CT/Ocarina debate from last page, additionally inspired by Ulti's PCA. I apologize if someone has already tried setting CT equal to Ocarina and following through from there before.

Some notes on the adjustments (or lack thereof) and games included (or excluded):
  • The first list all the way down to Hearthstone has no adjustments at all beyond the assumption that CT was indirectly exactly on par with Ocarina in 2015. As such, take Divisions 6-8 with a grain of salt, especially LttP and MGS3's eightpacks.
  • I technically could have included the back half of Division 1 and all of Division 2 in said list by using rallied Melee's value from its CT match, but I didn't feel Melee had sufficient transitivity to give those stats any credence.
  • The second list represents my attempt to apply adjustments to broaden the frame of comparison between CT and Ocarina. I calculated rallied Melee from its CT match, as mentioned above, and then derived FFVII's value by assuming both games faced the same Melee. This puts FFVII almost exactly in between its bottom end, from its bonus match with Ocarina, and its top end, from its match with FFVI and CT's bonus match with FFVI.
  • For FFVI, I instead opted for its bonus match percent on CT, as deriving its value from its match with FFVII would put it noticeably lower than its direct score on CT, implying that rSFF there is more likely than FFVII SFFing FFVI.
  • That FFVI adjustment then gave me a metric by which to gauge SFF in OoT/LttP. I bumped Division 6 up by the same amount on the premise that the SFF would stack up comparably in those parallel matches, one which series PotD results relative to LFF also seem to support, for whatever that's worth.
  • Unrallied Melee, and consequently the back half of Division 1, comes from Melee's registered voter percent against CT. As TRE pointed out, this might actually highball unrallied Melee, but it's the best guess we have at what a standard full match between the two games would have looked like.
  • These adjusted stats likely overrate Majora's eightpack and certainly underrate GSC (+TWEWY). I found insufficient hard data to adjust either case further given how there was no clear starting point for Melee's rallies against GSC or gauge of what rallied voters and contest circumstances might have done to LttP/Majora.
  • Neither list includes any games from Divisions 3 or 4 as a consequence of rallied Undertale's complete lack of transitivity leaving no easy metrics by which to measure those divisions relative to the rest of the field.
Also note that this is all a thought experiment stemming from a single assumption, one which may or may not be accurate. (I personally don't think it is, in fact.) I hope this nonetheless complements KP's adjusted stats as a means of gauging the realistic possibilities for how CT and Ocarina compare.

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