Anyway, Sanity, if you're still checking this topic, the top 3 that I see going FTW after episode 1 are Kim, Chelsea, and Jonas.
And pre-season I freaking had Kim as my #1, and Chelsea as my #2, yet decided to go out on a limb and pick Troyzan (my #3) ahead of Chelsea. Argh.
Although I think Kim is the current leader of the pack anyway.
I am predicting that if the women lose next episode, one of the minority alliance will be sent packing (Nina/Monica/Christina). And although we keep hearing about Alicia wanting Christina out, I don't think that'll happen if the women lose. That'll be a developing storyline that won't end after 2 episodes or so. So I'm betting either Nina or Monica.
If the men lose, I would not be surprised to see Matt get the boot. That idol play is getting spruced up for a reason. Colton is going to form an alliance outside of the Fit 4 and cause a ruckus. Although I don't know if Colton will go very far either. He was a little too weak for my liking in terms of longevity. He has pre-merge story written all over him.
Bill being completely ignored in the episode is bad for him. Dunno what to say about it right now other than he's not gonna win.
Most winners get a decent edit in episode 1. Usually we don't love/hate them (due to editing, not our own bias) right away. There were really no winner quotes (Fabio's "I'll take that nickname for a million dollars", Todd's "That's a loooot of money!", Parvati's "I'm changing my persona around this time", etc), though amusingly enough Troyzan did get the "this is my island, baby!" quote that stood out for me. I could see that being played back on finale night if he won. Then again, I could also see him being like, say, Jimmy T. or someone. But I don't see him as a Jimmy T. yet. Troyzan is someone that I think people are underrating after his episode 1 edit, as I could see him doing good things. The other Tarzan... not so much. That guy isn't winning either.
Basically no chance to win:
Alicia, Bill, Matt, Nina, Tarzan
Close to no chance:
Christina, Colton, Monica
"Okay" chance:
Jay, Kat, Leif, Michael, Troyzan
In the running:
Sabrina
Top 3 to be our next Sole Survivor:
Kim, Chelsea, Jonas
I switched Jay and Kat around a bit. Jay was higher, but then I realized he's kinda 'just there' right now. Kat looked goofy in the premiere, but that could go places - not necessarily bad - and so I bumped her up to "okay".
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