LogFAQs > #909383583

I think my current thinking is that Kavanaugh is not confirmed. The insistence by McConnell and others strikes me as them trying to project a strength and certainty not there in reality. I think I'd say I'm about 2-to-1 on him not confirmed.

I think the Senate would prefer he withdraw and free them from this and it is admittedly difficult for me to pin down where I think the "No" votes come if a vote is forced but this feels like it's collapsing and has for the last week (has it even been a week it feels like forever.)

Assuming it does fall through, I think the GOP puts up Barret because they're super predictable and think by nominating a woman they can go "got 'em" or something. Think she does get confirmed regardless of the absurdity of that logic though.