LogFAQs > #910023405

Battle 39: (7) Shovel Knight vs. (10) Captain Toad

This one is debatable to a certain extent. All we really know is that both characters will be weak. I'm inclined toward Toad because he's a Nintendo character people recognize, and because indie gaming has a record of doing really poorly here - or at least it did in 2015. Toad wins with 53%

Battle 40: (2) Waluigi vs. (15) Aerith Gainsborough

Aeris is our first of quite a few FFVII characters to have a match this year. See's also the only one with a realistic chance of losing round 1. Whatever estimate you may have of FFVII's decline, I really don't think Waluigi can hold up to her without a rally (mainly based on Wario's past strength.) To me, it does seem possible that he could catch a meme-based rally. He might be one of the more likely candidates, but I still don't think it's that likely. Aeris might even have the strength to hold up against a round 1 rally where someone like Jak couldn't. Aeris wins with 65%

Battle 41: (1) Geralt vs. (16) Rosalina

Rosalina is a relatively well-liked Nintendo character with some exposure to her. Galaxy has never really gotten its due on this site, which doesn't bode that well for her. The best gauge of Geralt that we have is Witcher III's half-decent performance in 2015. He'll be in some debatable matches later, but I don't think Rosalina has enough going for her to bring him down. Geralt wins with 60%

Battle 42: (8) Ryu Hayabusa vs. (9) Simon Belmont

Being in Smash doesn't seem to do all that much for a lot of characters. We found that out in the 4-ways particularly. One point of trivia: in his only contest appearance, Lucas ended up losing directly to the Jinzo from Banjo-Kazooie, and was last in the X-Stats. This was after he appeared in Brawl. Hayabusa wins with 58%