LogFAQs > #910208345

Division 3

Battle 73: (1) Sora vs. (9) Pokemon Trainer Red

In my estimation, we need to grant Red two generous assumptions for him to win here: Pokemon needs to be as strong as it was in 2013, and KHIII hype can't have helped Sora much. The latter being the case wouldn't be too shocking, but I really don't expect the former. I've probably cited 2013 too often myself. It was a year with a bad format and a lot of outside influence directed at causing chaos. Square characters like Cloud and Sora himself performed badly, but then Vivi beat Mario. Pokemon advanced very deep into the contest - but Charizard lost to Mega Man with Zero in the poll.

If it were Pikachu here instead, I can see him winning, but I think Sora should be the favorite over Red. Sora wins with 55%

Battle 75: (3) Alucard vs. (6) Yuna

As odd as it may sound, Yuna is just not Captain Falcon. The Captain has outperformed her significantly in the last two contests - and so has Alucard. Betting against Alucard in these contests has a long history of backfiring. In fact, that history goes all the way back to the first character battle, when people expected him to lose to Tails. You would have to bank on him really falling off a cliff here for her to win, and for that to happen despite SotN's good performance (where people expected Banjo-Kazooie might be able to beat it) in 2015 and the site's apparent demographic shift toward older audiences. Alucard wins with 58%

This division's other two matches are easy enough. Big Boss and the Kefka/L-Block winner should have no difficulty.

Division 4

Battle 77: (1) 2B vs (9) Ness

Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think 2B will be up to much. Ness is a low midcarder at best, but his game got a surprising amount of respect in 2015 and he's been around for ages, plus he has a relatively dedicated fandom to draw upon (although maybe the same can be said for 2B, I don't really know.) Ness wins with 53%

Battle 78: (12) Charizard vs (4) Bowser

Remember that a new Pokemon game was released on match day last time around. Remember that Charizard was riding a bandwagon and had only won 55-45 against Kratos two rounds before. And remember that Charizard lost to Mega Man despite Zero being in the match, during a year of absolute Pokemon dominance. This match is a trap. Bowser with with 60%

Battle 79: (3) Phoenix Wright vs (6) Ike

Phoenix being the favorite here is an example of people extending trends from previous years without confirmation that they've continued - and it might be that it's happening because we love Phoenix so much. Ike is above him in the X-stats for both 2010 and, for what little it's worth, 2013, though Phoenix is far ahead of Ike in the unadjusted 2013 stats, which are worth even less. But it's not as though it's illogical to extend those trends - it's just opening yourself up to a risk that they'll mislead you. Ike feels like a solid 2-point upset pick that could get you ahead of a lot of the board. He's also had some reason to boost since then - he's had Heroes, the Waifu Emblem strain of FE is more popular than the previous installments and references him, he's always in Smash, and there was even that FE/Dynasty Warriors game. I think I'll pull the trigger on it, unless someone else has a good reason to correct me. Ike wins with 51%

Battle 80: (10) Isaac vs. (2) Kirby

Back to free points. Kirby wins with 70%