LogFAQs > #910317990

Round 3

Battle 97: (1) Dante vs (4) Ganondorf

Both of these characters are obviously very powerful, but their precise strength is somewhat hard to gauge. Ganon isn't that high on the Nintendo totem pole, and a lot of his matches are hidden behind some kind of SFF. There's also the matter of a potential BotW boost. I think that will be a relatively small factor, particularly for Ganon, but it can be taken into account.

For instance, Dante is well ahead of Ganon in 2010's raw X-Stats, but Ganon has a valid excuse: he lost to Sonic with his LttP sprite, and then Sonic got pulverized by Link. Everyone behind Sonic will look weaker than he really is because of that final performance. The stats on NGamer's site adjust for that, and they have these two characters right next to one another.

Dante isn't as bad, but some things like the wide difference in his percentages on Ryu and to a lesser extent Leon look a little suspect. There's also the matter of his 2013 run. I think a lot of people will look at that and underestimate Dante as a result. I'm not even sure if it was a "DmC deboost." It might just be that Squirtle was going wild that year - something we have reason to believe based on Squirtle's victory over Cloud in the next round. Of course, if it was because of the reboot, Devil May Cry 5 should help nullify a lot of that loss, as I said before.

I'm not sure that the stats help that much with this one. My initial inclination was to pick Ganon, and given how close they are in stats and history I'll stick with that. Ganondorf wins with 51%

Battle 98: (3) Vivi vs (2) Leon Kennedy

Vivi is riding high after his upset of Mario last time around, and I think that's another great example of how trusting 2013 can turn on you. He was the beneficiary of a rally in that match, as well as the obvious handicap Mario faced - being weighed down by Ganondorf. In my estimation, that performance says very little about Vivi's strength at all.

This is a debatable match. Leon would probably be the favorite if it were run in 2010. They even have two direct matches from 2007. The second was unfair because Tidus was there with them, but in the first, alongside Ridley and Spyro, Leon was the winner.

I think there's a perception that Vivi has trended upward over time, but his first match back in 2004 was a 56% victory over DK, and his first match in 2010 was... a 56% victory over DK.

One advantage Vivi does have is that people will remember his upset last year and vote for him on that basis. It will probably give him a bit of a bracket advantage as well. That might be enough to secure him a small victory - looking at a year like 2010 indicates that he doesn't have too much ground to make up. But that's being somewhat selective, because other years show him further behind, and 2013 (where Vivi is far ahead) is the least reliable. Leon wins with 50.3%