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TopicKP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis
KamikazePotato
10/15/18 10:57:26 PM
#321:


Division 6 Match 9
Geralt vs. Ryu Hayabusa


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear

Now this is a tricky one. If Geralt lives up to his full potential, he could easily win this. Chris made a comment earlier in the topic about him being in a similar state to Shepard, being the face of a very popular WRPG series that GameFAQs has taken to. While I think Shepard is above his ceiling simply because Shepard is a more iconic character, it's still something to very much take into consideration. The potential is there - he just has to realize it.

Then there's Hayabusa. I've said it before, but I simply don't trust him this year. Hayabusa has random matches where he looks really good, but honestly he has more matches where he...doesn't. His most recent claim to fame is 'upsetting' Master Chief in 2010, which looks worse in hindsight after seeing Chief perform poorly in 2013. I'm still really disappointed that he couldn't even get past Zack in 2013 despite Kefka being in the same poll. Didn't even come close.

But, well, even a Hayabusa that's past his prime is still a legitimate midcard threat. Can Geralt reach the midcard? Honestly, I think he can. Shepard implies good things about him, Witcher 3 is a really big game, and...well, honestly, his 1 Seed impresses the hell out of me. Every other 1 Seed is an elite or 2B, who was propped up by B8. We've seen 1 Seeds get snakebitten, but even the 'frauds' tend to have a good amount of strength behind them. It's a coinflip match...which means that top option has this.

Result:
Geralt - 52%
Ryu Hayabusa - 48%

Geralt has a 50% chance of winning

--

Division 6 Match 10
Sans/Pac-man vs. Riku


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3815-midgar-division-round-2-riku-vs-captain-falcon

Either Sans gets a rally or he loses here. Same with Pac-man, except his chances are even worse because he definitely isn't getting rallied. Riku may be weaker than he used to be, but he's still got strength in him and KH3 is coming as well. Sans would have to be a lot stronger than expected for him to win here on his own terms.

Result:
Sans/Pac-man - 43%
Riku - 57%

Riku has a 95% chance of winning

--

Division 6 Match 11
Auron vs. Vincent


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3839-gear-division-round-3-auron-vs-squall
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5201-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-auron-vs-ocelot-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5156-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-kos-mos-vs-dunban-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5156-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-kos-mos-vs-dunban-vs

Years ago, Vincent is the easy pick to win this. Now, uh...

Auron (2013c) has a strength of 36.60 against Base Link.
Vincent (2013c) has a strength of 29.89 against Base Link.
Auron59.17%
Vincent40.83%
Auron wins with 59.17% of the vote!

Yeah. Mighty have fallen, and all that. Auron could drop a lot and still easily beat Vincent.

Auron has a 95% chance of winning

--

Division 6 Match 12
Sub-Zero vs. Claire


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3765-varia-division-round-1-tidus-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5204-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-chief-vs-yuna-vs

Claire has just never been on the level of the other big RE characters. Leon would take this but Claire, not so much. She's simply a lot weaker.

Sub-Zero - 61%
Claire - 39%

Sub-Zero has a 100% chance of winning
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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