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TopicKP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis
KamikazePotato
10/17/18 12:17:19 AM
#366:


Division 3 Match 13
Sora/Red vs. Big Boss


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3832-heart-division-round-3-sora-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs

I think Big Boss edges out Sora in 2013. Sora just looked off that year. He didn't beat the fodder/midcarders down as well as he should have, and that Pikachu/Blue match is always going to come back to haunt him when talking about his chances. Big Boss advancing over Luigi (with support from Ness) is a very solid result for a character that used to be a joke thanks to classic MGS melty art on the front page.

The situation has changed since then. Kingdom Hearts 3 is one of the big upcoming HYPE games, which should be good for Sora. He really needed that shot in the arm. Big Boss had Metal Gear Solid 5, which...should have been beneficial to him...but for a variety of reasons, I don't think it was. The reception of the game itself was middling, and certain plot stuff...yeah I won't go into details. I'll just say that I don't think BB increases at all, while I think Sora does, even if it's just by a little bit. In this match, a little bit is all it takes. It just 'feels' like a good year for Sora while it doesn't feel like a particularly good year for Big Boss, and sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

If Red is here, he was legit enough to beat Sora and I think that's also enough to get him over Big Boss. Simple logic but I'm going with it.

Result:
Sora/Red - 52%
Big Boss - 48%

Sora/Red have a 65% chance of winning

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Division 3 Match 14
Alucard/Yuna vs. Kefka


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu

If Kefka keeps his 2013 strength, he wins easy. Like, any of his strength. 2010 Kefka was already on Alucard's level. It's an easy win barring massive fuckery, but you have consider massive fuckerybecause it's Kefka. Only reason his win rate won't be higher.

Result:
Alucard/Yuna - 44%
Kefka - 56%

Kefka has an 80% chance of winning
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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