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TopicKP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis
KamikazePotato
10/17/18 8:18:03 PM
#389:


Division 3 Match 15
Sora/Big Boss vs. Kefka


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3832-heart-division-round-3-sora-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5191-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-sora-vs-scorpion-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3807-heart-division-round-2-kefka-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu

Sora (2013c) has a strength of 33.55 against Base Link.
Kefka (2013c) has a strength of 32.77 against Base Link.
Sora51.16%
Kefka48.84%
Sora wins with 51.16% of the vote!

Even Kefka at his best and Sora at his worst doesn't result in a Kefka victory. Look at the differences between the Bowser results in 2010 - it's hard to imagine Kefka made up THAT much ground. And then there's good old KINGDOM HEARTS 3 coming up, so, yeah. Kefka has the possibility to look here because seriously, who likes Sora over Kefka, but it's hard to see him winning. Sora is just higher on the Square pecking order.

But it's also Kefka, so maybe he boosts again??? Who knows with this guy.

Result:
Sora - 53%
Kefka - 47%

Sora has a 70% chance of winning

--

Division 4 Match 15
Bowser vs. Kirby


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3832-heart-division-round-3-sora-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5230-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-2-the-boss-vs-sub-zero

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3843-chaos-division-final-sonic-vs-kirby
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5255-character-battle-ix-division-3-final-sephiroth-vs-big-boss

So, this happened in 2005:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2117-dream-division-final-kirby-vs-bowser

Since then, Bowser has done well for himself. He's had his ups and downs, but overall he's been solid. In contrast, Kirby has done some really impressive stuff recently. Beat Sonic in 4-ways, did better on Sonic than Ganondorf did in 2010, got way closer to Sephiroth in 2013 than he had any right to. Kirby has been on a roll lately and when you combine that with certain Pokemon doing really well, it makes me imagine that there's been some group collective awakening where people on GameFAQs suddenly started liking cute things more than they did when they were edgey teens.

I'm not sure if Bowser would be able to do quite as well as Kirby did in the scenarios I listed. They're even in the 2013 stats but Kirby has just done more stuff. Bowser still has a very real chance to win as he's probably higher on the Nintendo pecking order by a bit, but for now I'm going Kirby. I think people just like seeing him win.

Result:
Kirby - 51%
Bowser - 49%

Kirby has a 55% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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