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Topic~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~
Lightning Strikes
10/23/18 9:53:29 AM
#56:


Day 4, Match 1 - Yoshi vs. Shantae
(3) Yoshi: 74.27% - (14) Shantae: 25.73%

What happened?: This was a fairly standard blowout. Shantae is very much a "just happy to be here" character, but did better than a lot of people thought she would. She's weak, but not ultra-fodder. Yoshi soared with the board vote, but then things stabilised below a tripling and Yoshi struggled to get over 74% until the last few hours. It was an uneventful beatdown, but Shantae has something of a moral victory in the fact that she didn't get destroyed.

What could this mean?: This wasn't nearly as bad for Yoshi as it might look on the surface. Shantae has well-liked, relatively well-known games with a dedicated fanbase and is essentially a low-tier Nintendo character. Her not getting totally blown out is a testament to her being kind of okay (she did get a 14 seed compared to the 16 seeds of comparable characters like Cuphead and Hat Kid). Regarding Yoshi, he performed very similarly to how Zero did on Primrose and in that match I might lean Shantae, but it's suffice to say that Yoshi and Zero are definitely looking comparable. I wouldn't read too much into this one, I think there is just a bit of underestimation of how weak the new characters are. I'm even starting to think that Cayde-6 might not get annihilated!

Day 4, Match 2 - Velvet Crowe vs. James Sunderland
(6) Velvet: 61.04% - (11) James: 38.96%

What happened?: This was a slightly debated match. The top tier Tales games (by which I mean Symphonia and Vesperia, mainly Symphonia) are pretty good, but the characters have done badly with the exception of 2005. Lloyd is okay, but doesn't get enough support in nominations to get winnable matches anymore. Yuri isn't a disaster, hovering a bit below the fodder line. Those are the two best comparisons or velvet I think. Silent Hill and its characters have never been good, with even Pyramid Head looking fodder line at best. So this was a match between perennial underperformers in a lot of ways. Then it opens and Velvet just destroys James, especially during the board vote. In some ways this was actually the surprise of the day. Velvet winning wasn't a shock after Aya vs. Sully, but the margin was larger and Velvet wasn't from a 90's Square RPG. In the end this was another debated match turned easy victory, and Tales characters got their first win since Lloyd beat Wesker in 2005.

What could this mean?: Well, this could easily speak to issues of recognisability and picture quality. James Sunderland just being "James" in the options can't have helped him, and Velvet was a cute anime girl with a striking artstyle. I did think James's pic was ok though, it had the distinctive Silent Hill look to it. More than just that I do think Velvet would have won without too much trouble anyway. Berseria is definitely a top tier Tales game, it is one of very few games in that series to sell over a million and is the best reviewed behind Symphonia and Vesperia (other than some rereleases anyway). The series is a mixed bag and this is one of the good ones. At the end of the day, Yuri would probably win this match too and I can't imagine a world in which Velvet's much weaker than him. So Velvet won this match legit, but the other factors might have helped too. Now let's hope this shuts Black Turtle up about how much he hates Tales.
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