LogFAQs > #911485808

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Topic~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~
Lightning Strikes
10/30/18 8:52:23 PM
#97:


Day 10, Match 3 - Sans vs. Pac-Man
(5)Sans: 28.62% - (12) Pac-Man: 71.34%

What happened?: This match was one with a lot of debate, leaving the board split down the middle. There were two arguments for Sans. First, RallyFEAR. Second, Undertale did have some natural strength, and he is a very memorable character from it. On the other hand, big contest-breaking rallies haven't turned up yet, and this is probably a better Pac-Man than we've seen thanks to Smash. Then the match starts and Pac-Man is instantly at 70%. The crazy thing though was how he kept building throughout the match. To top it all off this wasn't GameFAQs's doing entirely, as Sans actually did better with registered users.

What could this mean?: This wasn't just rallies not turning up, Sans is just that weak. Additionally, this wasn't GameFAQs revenge voting - Sans did better with registered users. Pac-Man is probably pretty decent now, he's been okay for a while and should be at his strongest. Sans has to be bottom 10 here, and I am honestly surprised he is this weak even assuming zero rallies. This was the underperformance of the contest for me.

Day 10, Match 4 - Bayonetta vs. Riku
(4)Bayonetta: 64.4% - (13) Riku: 35.6%

What happened?: And now for the overperformance of the round. Again, this was a highly debated match. Bayonetta didn't look great in 2013, Riku is a decent meat and potatoes high(ish) midcarder. Sora didn't look amazing, but he didn't look dreadful either. To Bayonetta's advantage, she has become effectively a Nintendo character since, with 2 being a Nintendo first party game, 1 and 2 coming to Switch this year, and her being in Smash. So, based on the 2013 stats, this would go to Riku with 62%. Then this match starts and Bayonetta destroys Riku after the board vote ends. Not only that, but she built her lead over time.

What could this mean?: This has to be the biggest boost of the contest. Bayonetta flipped a projected 62% loss to win with over 64%. That is mad. She is looking like a serious division finalist here, perhaps even a division winner. I never thought I would say that. She alsoo didn't trend like a Nintendo character so that's interesting, though that might just be because of Riku. This was possibly the most exciting day yet overall, and I love the way this contest has gone. Anything could happen.
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